Following the games of Saturday, October 11 weekend, we are exactly half way through the 2025 College Football season. This the perfect time to take a relook at updated forecasts for how the rest of the season will play out.

We’ll start with a look at a very updated College Football Playoff. Here are my picks for the playoff seeding and a quick thought on how each team’s season will play out.

In the Big Ten, I see Ohio State as the best team in the conference and the country. I expect the Buckeyes to win out, get over the Michigan hump and beat undefeated Indiana in the conference champ game. Oregon and OSO don’t play, so the Ducks can win out as well. The collapse of Penn St hurts the strength of schedules but Ohio State OOC win over Texas is still valuable.

The SEC only got 3 teams into the playoffs this year, but while the top teams aren’t dominant the upper third is better this year. Alabama and Georgia both will probably still lose another game and I don’t expect A&M or Ole Miss to finish undefeated. This will leave the SEC with a large number of 2 loss teams and all will get in. The question becomes, will there be a 3 loss SEC teams in the playoffs?

Miami is the big favorite to win the ACC, with Georgia Tech still undefeated. Unfortunately, the win over a 3 or 4 loss Clemson won’t carry as much weight and while the Jackets have the talent to beat rival UGA, I’ll believe that when I see it. I expect Tech to get upset somewhere on the way to Charlotte and the loss to UGA seals their fate – a great year, and impressive program building under HC Brent Key, but not a playoff berth.

In what was supppsed to be a wide open Big 12, Texas Tech has looked dominant. Look for the Red Raiders to win out, but no other conference teams will finish with less than 2 losses.

What about Notre Dame you ask? The Irish lost very close games to excellent teams in the first two games of the season, but have own out since. I expect a win at home tomorrow in their last game against a ranked team USC, to end the season 10-2 with 10 straight wins. The Irish will not have many quality wins but I’m sure the playoff committee chair will talk about quality losses for Notre Dame and they’ll get in.

That leaves our one remaining sfot for the best G5/6 conference champion. The American has stepped up their play this year with a number of teams that have quality wins, including USF, Memphis and Tulane. I think a close call between these 3, but after watching USF destroy undefeated North Texas in Denton, I”m taking the Bulls to win at Memphis and take the non power 4 slot.

Put all this together, and this is how I see the playoffs with seedings (note rankings and seedings are the same this year).

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Alabama
4. Indiana
5. Texas Tech
6. Georgia
7. Oregon
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame
11. Missouri
12. USF

Fans of Mr College Sports have likely read through the 2025 Forecast Top 35 (listed below), but have asked the question: What other teams were considered for the Top 25/35 for 2025? So I present below the other 11 (not just ten, but this list goes to eleven!) that were considered for the Top 35. Given the challenges with picking how college football seasons are going to play out, it’s likely that some of the teams in the Top 35 will underachieve, and several of these teams could take their places.

Note these are not ranked but are listed by conference in alphabetical order

ACC

DUKE – A dream season for the Blue Devils in Manny Diaz’s first year as HC, going 9-3 in the regular season including wins over all 3 tobacco road rivals plus name programs in FSU and VA Tech. You’d probably expect Duke to be a net loser in the transfer portal era, but as Michel Scott would say ‘how the turntables!”. Duke paid a lot of money to get former Tulane QB Darien Mensah, the top rated QB in all of G6 (and in the top 10 in FBS). He’ll operate behind an o-;ome that is experienced, but struggled most of the year. On the other side of the ball, Manny knows D; 3 of their starters on the d line are back, plus CB Chandler Rivers, who was 1st team All America. The conference schedule includes Clemson, but none of the other top contenders (Miami, Louisville, SMU). The non conference features some sneaky challenging games, including Illinois at home and visits to Tulane and UConn. Duke has been underestimated many times before, and I strongly considered them in the top 35. But I was swayed by the fact they were 5-1 in 1 score games last year and typically this evens out over time. But the Blue Devils are definitely one to watch.

FLORIDA STATE – An unprecedented collapse of a program occurred in year 4 of the Mike Norvell era, when a reliance on transfers blew up and a 13-1 season was followed by a 10 loss season. Since Norvell had just signed a new long term deal, FSU could not afford to fire him; but both coordinators were let go in a major reset. On defense, new DC Tony White comes from Nebraska where he produced Top 25 defenses each of the last 4 years – 2 in Lincoln, which followed 2 at Syracuse. The talent is there for a rebound if not to Top 25 at least to respectability. Offense will be almost completely new (probably a good thing) but also a big question. Norvell brought in former boss Gus Malzahn (HC at UCF, previously at Auburn) and paired Malzahn with his former QB Tommy Castellanos. Castellanos appears a good fit for the Malzahn offense, but was benched at BC and left the team during Bill O’Brien’s first year as HC. The top WRs are new, (headlined by Duce Robinson from USC), 4 of the 5 o-lineman will be new, including experienced transfers from Ole Miss, Vandy and Wake. The schedule is top heavy, with the Noles big underdogs in the opener vs Alabama, and games vs Miami, Florida and Clemson.  It’s hard to have faith in Norvell after last year, but at least the dramatic changes mean an opportunity for notable improvement but to what extent? Seems like 6-6 or 7-5 is most likely. 

NORTH CAROLINA – One of the biggest stories in the offseason for all of college football was UNC bringing in the best modern day NFL coach in Bill Belichick, who has 6 Super Bowl trophies but has never been a college HC. Belichick hired his son to be DC and brought in the largest haul of transfers east of Boulder CO to remake this team. The last move may be the more important one – to get Gio Lopez from South Alabama. Lopez is a dual threat, with over 2500 yards passing, 450 yards rushing and a 66% completion rate in his freshman year at USA. Many positions on both sides of the ball will be filled by transfers and the majority of starters on D and O left the program. The schedule is very manageable, with the toughest OOC game the opener vs TCU; and while Clemson is on the schedule from the ACC, Miami, Louisville and SMU are not. Isn’t Belichick a big upgrade compared to the HCs at most of the ACC teams UNC will face? Or is the transition to college going to be challenging in year 1? It will be fascinating to see what happens this season and how Belichick’s successful coaching style in the NFL translates to college. 

BIG TEN

IOWA – Hawkeyes came into last year with expectations of an even more dominant defense and with a healthy QB producing just marginal output, a big season was on tap. The offense was better in ‘24 but then the defense took a step back. They still have excellent DC Phil Parker, but enter the year with more holes to fill on all 3 levels of the D. The offense returns most of the line, and a couple of experienced RBs, all the star back Kaleb Johson is off to the NFL. A very interesting turn at QB, with the arrival of Mark Gronowski from perennial FCS power SD State. His passing stats are eye popping and he won the Walter Camp Award (FCS Heisman) in 2023. The schedule is tougher this season with Penn State,  Oregon and Indiana at home, and trips to USC, Nebraska and OOC at Iowa State. Maybe Gronowski finally elevates the offense, but the more difficult schedule suggests another mid tier conference finish. 

WASHINGTON – Huskies had the dream season in ‘23, an undefeated Pac 12 championship, making it to the national title game before losing to Michigan. Then the bottom fell out, as HC Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama and 20 players transferred out; UW dropped to 6-7. But Huskies may have found their QB in Demond Williams as the season progressed. RB Jonah Coleman had over 1000 yards rushing last season, and spurned the NFL to return; he’ll run behind an 0-line much deeper and experienced than in ‘24. The defense was solid against the pass last season but struggled against the run. The portal brought a mixed bag of departures and arrivals, and DC Steve Belichick left for a job with his Dad at UNC. 2nd year HC Jedd Fisch brought in Ryan Walters, who has been very successful as a DC (less so as HC). Fisch turned around Arizona and should get the 2nd year bump. The schedule is easier this year than last, and Washington is very much a sleeper team in the Big 10.

BIG 12

BYU –  The big story in Provo was the off-season issues with starting QB Jake Retzlaff which ended in his transfer out of the program. BYU does have other playmakers back, including RB LJ Martin and WR’s Chase Roberts and Keelan Marion. Rebuilding is needed on both lines but 4 of the 5 leading tacklers on defense to return. .BYU is on the road to face other contenders Iowa State and Texas Tech; but gets Utah and home and in potentially a big break, misses Arizona State and K State. Given this very late change in starting QB, I pushed the Cougars down in the projections for the Big 12, but the conference is so wide open, it’s hard to eliminate any team.

TCU – the Frogs started slow in ‘24, 3-3 that included a blowout loss to Metroplex rival SMU. But HC Sonny Dykes rallied the troops, and the team went 6-1 down the stretch to finish with 9 wins. The optimism for ‘25 starts at QB, where TCU returns starter Josh Hoover, who reportedly had major programs willing to throw big money at him to transfer, but he stayed. The top two WRs are gone, but the group pass catchers are experienced and deep. The o-line needs some work after struggling in ‘24. Dykes brought in Andy Avalos at DC last season and it paid dividends right away. TCU had the top high school recruiting class in the Big 12 and the top transfer class, so the talent is there. The schedule is tougher, the opener at Bill Belichick’s UNC team and rival SMU at home in the non conference, and ASU, K State and BYU on the road with Iowa State and Baylor at home. It’s challenging to separate out the teams in this conference, so TCU could easily surprise.

SEC

MISSOURI – HC Eli Drinkwitz led Missouri to a stunning 11 win season in ‘23, and followed that up with a 10 win season last year; back to back 10 or more win seasons have only happened 2 times before. But the majority of those guys, especially on offense have moved on. This includes starting QB Brady Cook and superstar WR Luther Burden. The top 2 WRs are also gone as is the majority of the o-line. The new QB is Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, the former backup to Drew Allar. On defense, the line and linebackers have a number of holes to fill, but most of the secondary returns. The schedule last year was one of the SEC’s easiest, and includes the same teams this year. However, teams like Auburn and OU, Missouri wins last year, are improved and will be on the road. The schedule gives Missouri another chance to finish with a winning record, but this looks like a significant rebuilding year.

NON P4

JAMES MADISON – JMU went 11-1 in 2023 but HC Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a number of top players with him. In the first season under HC Bob Chesney (from Holy Cross), the Dukes blew out North Carolina in Chapel Hill, but finished only 4-4 in the conference. Getting past that transition year, JMU is expected to get back to where they were previously and are the big favorite in the Sun Belt. I don’t think their schedule is going to result in a profile that would get them in the playoffs as the highest rated G6 team, but could certainly result in a Top 35 finish.

NAVY – Army was the big story in the American last year, finishing 12-2 and ranked #21 in the final AP poll. They lose their leader in QB Bryson Daily and have a tougher conference schedule, so I think they’ll drop back in ‘25. There are several contenders for the American championship, including Memphis, Tulane and Navy. Memphis and Tulane both lost a lot of production, including their starting QBs (Memphis a 4 year starter), although the Green Wave have an intriguing option in late addition Jake Retzlaff from BYU. Navy is the one that has their QB back and will be their most experienced team in recent years, so I give them the slight edge to win the American.

TOLEDO – The Rockets claim to fame last season was a 41-17 beatdown of SEC member Mississippi State in Starkville, then topped by a 6OT bowl win over Pitt. They were only 4-4 in the MAC though, but bring back their HC and starting QB (not a given in the G6 world these days) and should be improved. They have an interesting opener at Kentucky, then a MAC slate interrupted by a long trip to Wazzu. Toledo is the favorite to win the MAC and could finish in the top 35.

See below for the Top 35 for the 2025 college football season. This is intended as a forecast of the final AP poll top 25 plus the “also receiving votes” which typically includes at least 10 more teams. Note that this is the final AP poll rankings after the playoffs have concluded.

1 TEXAS – The Longhorns’ success in the Big 12 carried over to their first year in the SEC, reaching the conference title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns have to rebuild their offensive line as 4 starters are departing. But the o-line ranked only #82 in Offensive Line Run Push and #74 in pass protection, and the replacements are all blue chippers. There’s a solid core returning on defense, led by LB Anthony Hill and Edge Collin Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal – all 3 were 4 stars. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning, and in conference, goes to Georgia and Florida. The rest of the schedule is very manageable, as Texas does not face Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or Ole Miss.

2 PENN STATE – HC James Franklin may not have won the big one vs. Ohio State last season, but he certainly won several pretty big ones as the Lions advanced to the semifinals in the playoffs. Expectations are sky high in Happy Valley for 2025 with the return of QB Drew Allar and the first 1,000-yard duo in Penn State history, Singleton and Allen. Though defensive coordinator Tom Allen departed for Clemson, Franklin made the highly respected DC from Ohio State the top-paid coordinator in the country to lure him to State College. Penn State had 10 defenders on the All Big Ten teams, and 5 returned. The big loss is DE Abdul Carter, but the next up 5* will step in. Two monster games in the schedule include Oregon coming to Happy Valley on Sept. 27, and Penn State plays at Ohio State on Nov. 1.

3 ALABAMA – A very disappointing season by Alabama seasons, highlighted (or should I say lowlighted) by a very rare loss to Vanderbilt with the season-ending blowout loss to Oklahoma knocking the Tide out of the CFP. HC Kalen DeBoer knows this is far from the Alabama standard and brought his longtime associate Ryan Grubb to run the offense, and WR Ryan Williams is a budding star. Ty Simpson looks to be the leader in the QB competition, and he’ll get to operate behind an experienced o-line with 4 starters back. The defense returns 7 starters and looks to be more like a dominant defense of old. The schedule is tough with home games vs LSU and Tennessee, plus UGA on the road. Neither FSU nor Auburn was good last year, but both should be improved and the Tide get both on the road.

4 CLEMSON – When the Tigers were blown out in the second half by Georgia in the season opener, it looked like the Clemson of 2016-2020 was nowhere to be seen. But a funny thing happened on the way to the ACC championship game. In spite of a few more stumbles, including a frustrating loss to in-state rival South Carolina, the Tigers took advantage of a Miami late-season collapse to make it to Charlotte. Clemson dispatched newcomer SMU to make the inaugural 12-team playoff , where they eventually made a game of it vs. Texas. While the majority of the playoff teams will be looking for a new QB, Clemson has some of the top ones in the country returning. Cade Klubnik threw for over 3000 yards, has WRs Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr. back, and should be even better in a second year of OC Garrett’s offense. Clemson is #1 in the SP+ returning production on offense. The defense did not live up to the standards set in the Venables era, and Dabo fired his DC and brought in Tom Allen, the DC who led Penn State to a #3 finish last season. The Tigers only lose one starter from each level and are #7 in the country in returning starters on defense – plus a rare addition from the portal, Edge Will Heldt from Purdue. The Tigers have a mega opener vs. the other Death Valley Tigers (in their Death Valley) and end with rival South Carolina. They do draw SMU at home and go to Louisville, but do not face Miami.

5 GEORGIA – The Dawgs were inconsistent and battled injuries throughout the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Back-up QB Gunner Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He is the frontrunner to replace Beck, who left for Miami’s (and up to $10 million in NIL and endorsement money). Georgia needs to improve on their o-line blocking, receiver drops, and overall tackling on defense. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. The o-line lost 3 starters to the draft; the replacements will be inexperienced, but 8 of the 10 two-deep are top 100 recruits. On defense, the story is the same on the D line, where NT Christen Miller anchors the line, but other spots will be filled by more top 100 recruits. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important additions to the secondary with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, as Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas come to Athens, but Tennessee and Auburn are true road games, with Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech in Mercedes Benz in Atlanta.

6 OHIO STATE – The inaugural 12-team playoff is likely to be a harbinger of things to come. The lower-ranked team running through the playoffs is not going to be some Cinderella, but a super-talented powerhouse that screwed up along the way but gets a 2nd chance with the expansion to 12 teams. Ohio State fits this description perfectly— the most talented team in the country chokes in the rivalry game with a mediocre Michigan team but gets a second life in the playoffs. Defending their national championship is going to be a challenge, with a huge number of experienced players leaving from both sides of the ball. Rebuilding around superstar WR Jeremiah Smith is a good place to start. Five-star QB and transfer from Alabama, Julia Sayin, is the favorite to take over at QB. RBs Trayvon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are a big loss, but next up is former top 100 RB James Peoples. The The Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal to boost the offense. A lot of new faces will appear on the defense, including the coordinator— DC Jim Knowles built a phenomenal defense at Ohio State, then surprisingly left for Penn State. More surprisingly, Day brought in Matt Patricia— the genius in the room (as he will tell you). The defense is young but uber-talented. The schedule includes the marquee opener in the country as the Buckeyes host Texas, but the conference title will come down to Penn State and Michigan. Oregon is off the schedule this year.

7 NOTRE DAME – The outlook was bleak for the Fighting Irish after a shocking upset loss to Northern Illinois in game 2. But HC Marcus Freeman rallied his troops to not only win out in the regular season but advance through the playoffs all the way to the title game. The big loss is QB Riley Leonard after one season as the starter following his transfer from Duke. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. Backup Steve Angeli would have competed with Carr for the job but entered the spring transfer portal and transferred to Syracuse. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with RBs Jeremiyiah Love and Jadarian Price. Notre Dame needed more big play receivers and added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes. The schedule starts with a bang, opening at Miami, the Texas A&M comes to South Bend after an open date. Home games with Boise State and Navy are the only other likely ranked team on the schedule.

8 OREGON – The Ducks went undefeated in their first season in the Big Ten. Oregon gave up a lot of points to Penn State in the conference championship game but was rolled by Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, HC Dan Lanning faces a significant rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel, although Moore’s production was not at all at Gabriel’s level coming in. WR Evan Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are rebuilding on defense but have talent; the inexperienced players will need to step up. Oregon did not play Penn State in the regular season last year but goes to Happy Valley in October – BUT skips Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois.

9 LSU – The Tigers have been good the past 3 seasons, with an appearance in the SEC title game and a Heisman winner. But winning the Texas Bowl is not why the LSU money men lured HC Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame. Ohio State went all in on retaining talent and adding it through the portal last year, and LSU appears to be following that model for ’24. QB Daniel Nussmeier is back after throwing for 29 TDs and over 4000 yards, and few of the other more talented teams will feature an experienced signal-caller. The bigger issue last year (and the year before) was a porous defense that gave up big chunks of yards. Kelly is bringing in a large portal class, featuring experienced players from P4 programs. Will it be enough to get the Tigers back to the SEC championship game?

10 MICHIGAN – A very pedestrian season for the Wolverines was winding down when they upset their biggest rival and heavy favorite Ohio State in the regular season finale, then continued that momentum with an upset over Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The defense was dominant, especially in the latter part of the season. They did lose their star DTs but brought in 5th recruit from Alabama, Damon Payne Jr. to fill one of those holes. The offense needs better QB play, and in steps Fr Bryce Underwood, the #1 recruit that Michigan stole from LSU at the last minute. Michigan has an interesting OOC game at Oklahoma, but does not play either Oregon, Penn State, or Illinois in the Big Ten.

11 ARIZONA STATE – ASU stunned the world last season, after picking last in the Big 12, to win the conference and nearly upset Texas in the playoffs. While the Sun Devils won’t sneak up on anyone this year, they may not need to. Superstar RB overall playmaker Cam Skattebo is off to the NFL, but QB Sam Leavitt and top WR Jordyn Tyson (over 1100 yards receiving in ’24) return. The defense also brings back most of their starters, including S Xavion Alford, DL CJ Fite, and LB Keyshaun Elliott, and ASU is #2 in the nation in SP+ returning production rankings. The schedule does include some of the key Big 12 games on the road, like Utah, Iowa State, and Baylor.

12 MIAMI – HC Mario Cristobal pulled another QB surprise when, for the 2nd straight year, a QB appeared to be headed to the NFL, instead taking the NIL money at the U. This time, it’s Carson Beck of UGA that now gives the Canes a very experienced passer for ’25, assuming Beck has recovered from the elbow injury suffered in the SECCG. Miami’s issue last year, though, wasn’t on offense; it was on D; Cristobal fired DC Lance Guidry and brought in Minnesota DC Corey Hetherman. A change in philosophy and reinforcements from the portal are hoped to improve Miami from surrendering 31 ppg in ACC play.

13 FLORIDA – HC Billy Napier’s seat was red-hot after a 1-2 start (2 blowout losses) and a 4-5 record with 3 games to go. But behind QB DJ Lagway’s play and an improving defense, the Gators rallied to win 4 straight, upsetting LSU and Ole Miss, beating rival FSU, and then Tulane in the bowl game. Florida again faces one of the toughest schedules in the country, going to LSU, Ole Miss, Miami, and A&M, Texas, and Tennessee at home, and UGA in Jax. With most starters back on both sides of the ball, last season’s finish can carry over to this year, but the schedule puts a cap on the ceiling.

14 BOISE STATE – The Broncos were the cream of the crop of the G5 teams last year and are the favorite again in 2025 as the rep for the playoffs. Superstar RB Ashton Jeanty departs after a stunning 2600 yards and 29 TDs. No way we won’t see a drop-off in this area, but QB Maddux Madsen is back and will operate behind 4 returning starters on the o-line. The defense brings back most of their starters, including leading tackler Ty Benefield and sack leader Jayden Virgin-Morgan. Boise opens at USF, but the monster OOC match-up is an October date at Notre Dame.

15 ILLINOIS – The Illini won 10 games last season for the first time since 2001… so are they rebuilding after such a breakout season? Nope. 2-year starter at QB Luke Altmyer returns and will have an experienced o-line to protect him. Edge Gabe Jacas and DB Xavier Scott were both All-Big Ten in ’24 and lead an experienced defense. The Illini are #3 nationally in ESPN SP+ returning production. Road games in the Big Ten are Indiana, Purdue, Washington, and Wisconsin; Ohio State comes to Champaign, but Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan are not on the schedule.

16 TEXAS TECH – Tech is going to be one of the most talked-about programs in the country this year as Exhibit A on “What can you buy in the portal?” Tech and one of their big boosters has gone all in on the portal, with the #1-ranked class. HC Joey McGuire, the former long-time Texas HS coach, has been slowly improving the Tech program. Last season’s 6-3 record in the Big 12 was their best conference record in over 10 years. QB Brehen Morton returns after throwing for 3300 yards and a 27-8 ratio. Tech has an experienced o-line and brings back 11 starters on defense. Tech’s out-of-conference schedule is Ark Pine Bluff, Kent, and Oregon State; their first conference game is at Utah, and they also travel to K State and Arizona St. In order for this to be the breakthrough season, McGuire must improve on their 6-10 conference road record… can you portal your way to a playoff berth?

17 MISSISSIPPI -Lane Kiffin went all in on NIL last season, and Ole Miss was one of the most talented teams in the country, as they showed in the dominant win over UGA. But somehow, they couldn’t get out of their own way, as 3 losses , all to teams that finished unranked, kept the Rebels out of the playoffs. Many of those playmakers are gone, but the Portal King was at it again, bringing in the #2 transfer class this offseason. QB Austin Simmons has been in the program and appears ready to take over. Ole Miss gets LSU, Florida, and South Carolina at home and travels to UGA and OU; they don’t face Alabama or Texas.

18 USC – HC Lincoln Riley went 2-0 vs the SEC, but just 5-6 against everyone else, and now finds himself on the hotseat with a downward trajectory in wins since taking over the program. Look closer though, and you’ll see that 5 of the 6 losses were within 1 score, and USC held late leads in 4. At QB, Riley switched to Jayden Maiava late in the year, a better runner and scrambler than Miller Moss, and the Trojans responded going 3-1. USC has lost several key offensive starters to other P4 programs in the transfer portal, but brought in two big-name RB transfers themselves in Eli Sanders from New Mexico and Waymond Jordan from JUCO Hutchinson CC (1600 yards rushing in ’24). Leading WR Makai Lemon is back, and Ja’Kobi Lane, who finished 2nd in the Big Ten in TDs with 12, also returns. The o-line was solid last year but is rebuilding. On defense, bringing in DC D’Anton Lynn brought immediate dividends, as the D gave up 10 less ppg than the season before. That defense does lose 8 starters but has been fortified through the portal (#4 portal class overall), and another year in Lynn’s systems should be even better. The schedule includes visits to Illinois, Nebraska, and Oregon in the Big Ten, and Michigan at home. The The Big OOC game is the usual showdown with the Fighting Irish, this season in South Bend. USC does not face Penn St or Ohio St. If the Trojans can turn those late leads into wins, we would see a big jump in their record in ’25.

19 UTAH – The Utes were expected to contend for the Big 12 title coming into 2024, but that prediction was based on QB Cam Rising staying healthy (in spite of Rising’s injury history). Rising gets injured early in the season, and the hits kept coming, as the Utes were down to their 5th string QB by the next-to-last game. The program finally turns the page on Rising and brings in QB Devon Dampier, who threw for 2800 yards and rushed for over 1100 yards last season at New Mexico. New OC Jason Beck also came from New Mexico, with Willingham hoping for the same magic the two produced for the Lobos. The The Utes return 7 starters from a defense that gave up 20 points a game last year. Schedule-wise, Utah has a big opener at UCLA, travels to BYU and K State, but gets Texas Tech and Arizona St at home. Whittingham has been at Utah for 21 years, and I expect a big bounce back after last year’s 5-7 finish.

20 TEXAS A&M – The Aggies were right in the SEC championship game race after a 7-1 start but lost 4 of their last 5 to finish 8-5. Which freshman QB in the SEC had the best QBR? Lagway? Sellers? It was Marcel Reed, who returns and gets back RBs Le’Veon Moss and Reuben Owens, both getting injured during last season (loss of Moss was part of the A&M late season slide). A&M returns all 5 starters on their o-line. HC Mike Elko brought in talented WRs Kevin Concepcion (from NC State) and Mario Craver (from Miss St). The defense is ranked 7th in the nation in SP+ returning production, with the entire secondary back and LBs Taurean York and Scooby Williams – the two combined for 118 tackles last year. 3 starters on the D line did go to the NFL, but the backups were all blue chippers and will step in. The schedule features road games at Texas, LSU, and Notre Dame and home games vs Florida and Auburn, but Alabama and Georgia are not on the schedule.

21. BAYLOR – The Bears rebounded in a big way from a disastrous 2023 season, winning 6 of their last 7 in ’24 to finish 8-5. The expectation in Baylor is that finish will carry over into 2025. QB Sawyer Robertson returns as one of the top QBs in the Big 12, and most starters are back from both sides of the ball. Baylor has a challenging OOC with games a home game vs Auburn and a road game at SMU. In the Big 12, the Bears get K State and Arizona St at home and do not face BYU.

22 OKLAHOMA – Oklahoma’s first season in the SEC was one to forget as the Sooners stumbled to a 2-6 in the conference (tied for 13th) and 6-7 overall after losing to Navy in the bowl. HC Brent Venables (22-17 overall at OU) is aware he’s on the hot seat and made some changes. He brought in OC Ben Arbuckle from Wash. St. and the SU QB John Mateer through the portal. The Arbuckle/Mateer show produced over 3300 yards passing, 65% completion %, and the QB rushed for 800 yards+. OU returned none of their o-linemen last season but are more experienced coming into 2025. The D was solid against a tough schedule and returns 8 starters, including 8 of their top 10 leading tacklers. The schedule is one of the toughest in the SEC and includes an OOC home game vs. Michigan. OU goes to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama and has Texas at the normal neutral site. The call here is that OU is an improved team on offense, but the schedule difficulty limits the improvement to the record.

23 INDIANA – One of the most surprising stories in all of college football, Indiana’s new HC Curt Cignetti brought a number of players from his former team James Madison, plus a transfer QB, and led the Hoosiers to a 10-0 start and a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff. Was last season a one-hit wonder? For starters, the Hoosiers lost their great transfer QB Kurtis Rourke but brought in another experienced transfer in Fernando Mendoza. He played well above the Mendoza line while at Call, throwing for 300 yards and completing 69% of his passes last year. Otherwise, 9 returning starters on offense. On D, DE Mikail Kamara is the returning Big 10 leader in TFL and sacks, and he brings in DBs from Ole Miss and Pitt. Overall, Indiana is #1 in Phil Steele’s All-Conference returners rankings. The conference schedule is tougher than last season, and it includes road visits to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State – but no Michigan or Ohio State. Cignetti has won at a high level wherever he’s been, and he appears to work the portal well. While the record likely won’t be as good as last year’s with the tougher games, there might not be that much drop-off in play.

24 KANSAS STATE – Kansas State has won at least 9 games in each of the past 3 years under HC Chris Klieman, and with QB Avery Johnson returning, a 4th straight is very possible. Johnson will have his top target in Jayce Brown back. Star RB DJ Giddens is off to the NFL, but Dylan Edwards (7/4 yards per carry last season) should be a more than capable primary back. Some holes will need filling on D, but Klieman has a habit of fielding solid defenses. The schedule starts with a long trip for a conference game – vs Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland. Interesting OOC games with FCS power North Dakota and Army, but the schedule doesn’t include BYU and Arizona State.

25 TENNESSEE – As of this writing, the main story around Tennessee is also the big story in college football – starting QB Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA in search of more NIL money (spoiler alert – he didn’t get it!). Props to HC Josh Heupel for taking a stand against Nico’s reps out of line demands, but this puts Tennessee in a tough position. The Vols lose much of their experience in RBs, WRs, OL, and DL. Heupel was counting on an improved Nico just to meet the Vols’ record from last year. Tennessee faces Syracuse (without their starting QB from last season) in the opener, gets UGA and OU at home, and Alabama and Florida on the road. The Vols do not face Texas, LSU, or South Carolina.

26 NEBRASKA – The Huskers finally made a bowl game after an incredibly long drought and look for more as HC Matt Rhule enters his 3rd season. QB Dylan Raiola should improve with the additional experience and a full year in OC Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The schedule includes an OOC opener vs Cincinnati and features Big Ten heavyweights Michigan at home and Penn State on the road. But Oregon and Ohio State are not on the schedule.

27 LOUISVILLE – HC Jeff Brohm has been an instant success since he ‘came home’ to Louisville, leading the Cards to 19 wins in his first 2 seasons. Brohm added QB Miller Moss and has two outstanding RBs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson, all operating behind one of the top OLs in the ACC. The schedule includes trips to Miami and SMU and a home game vs Clemson but is overall very manageable.

28 SOUTH CAROLINA – The Gamecocks surprisingly nearly made the college football playoffs, and primarily because of the play of QB LaNorris Sellers, who threw for 267 yards per game. New OC Mike Shula will try to elevate Sellers’ play even higher and he’ll have WRs Nyck Harbor, Mazzeo Bennett, and Jared Brown all back as targets. The defense has some holes to fill but does return DE Dylan Stewart (10.5 sacks in ’24) and experienced DBs in Jalon Kilgore and DQ Smith. The Gamecocks avoid long East Division powerhouses Tennessee and Georgia, but draw LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M on the road, get Bama and Clemson at home, and open with Virginia Tech in Atlanta. The biggest question may be more mental – can the Gamecocks succeed as a favorite with the most hype since the Spurrier years coming into a season?

29 GEORGIA TECH – HC Brent Key has done a great job in pulling the Tech program out of the 10-28 abyss of the Geoff Collins era. Last season the Jackets opened with an upset win over FSU (although in hindsight, didn’t look so impressive), and almost closed with a win over SEC champ Georgia (7OT loss). Key then signed the #21 recruiting class, the best for Tech in years. For 2025, the optimism starts with QB Haynes King, who led the ACC in completion % (73!) and only threw 2 picks – and added almost 800 yards with his legs. Speaking of legs, Tech has one of the best QB/RB combos in the country with RB Jamal Haynes, who has averaged over 1000 yards rushing the past season. The Jackets did lose their top WR Eric Singleton in the portal to AU, but brought in one of the better WR In the portal in Eric Rivers, who led C-USA in receiving at FIU. The o-line needs rebuilding but that is Key’s forte. On defense, the Jackets will feature a veteran secondary but have some holes to fill at DE and DT. Key brought in Ronald Triplette from UTSA and AJ Hoffler from Clemson as reinforcements. The schedule includes an early home date with Clemson, but not Miami, SMU, or Louisville. The season kicks off with an interesting OOC at Colorado and ends with the usual rivalry vs the Dawgs, (this time in Mercedes Benz in Atlanta). Key’s teams have generally played great against the best competition but have faltered at times vs less talented teams. If Tech can play at that higher level in every game, they have to have the QB play to have a breakout season.

30 AUBURN – Hugh Freeze was much heralded when AU hired him two years ago (at least for on-the-field results), but so far it’s been more losing seasons following the disaster of Bryan Harsin. But look a little closer, and the program appears in much better shape. Freeze has dramatically improved the recruiting, including among the in-state talent. And last year’s record was greatly influenced by a plethora of turnovers and the worst field goal kicking in the nation. The restart this season begins at QB, where former OU QB Jackson Arnold is expected to be the starter. He was good at limiting turnovers last season, but his QB rating was not great; AU is hoping Freeze can improve on that. AU brought in one of the top WR’s in the nation in all ACC WR Eric Singleton from GA Tech and Horatio Fields from Wake. The oline is solid and features C Connor Lew, all freshmen back in 2023. The D does lose the starting LB corps, but a mix of returning starters and transfers will make up a very athletic D in 2025. The schedule starts with a big OOC at Baylor and includes GA and Bama at home and road games vs Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Freeze has AU as one of a handful of teams that finished in the top ten in both high school recruiting and transfer recruiting and can make a big jump in record this year.

31 SMU – The Ponies’ first year in the ACC was a memorable one, finishing undefeated in the conference, appearing in the ACCCG, and making the CFP. Repeating that feat will be a challenge for HC Rhett Lashlee as several stars depart. QB Kevin Jennings is not one of them, though, and will be counted on to make big plays with the new talent around him. TE RJ Maryland is back after an injury derailed a great season to give Jennings a reliable target, but star RB/WR Brashard Smith and his 1600+ all-purpose yards are in the NFL. The Ponies lose 9 starters of the defense, and even with an influx of talent through the portal, this unit will take a step back. The schedule is tougher this year. After missing Clemson and Miami last season, SMU is at Clemson and gets Miami at home (Louisville as well). SMU also plays two in-state rivals in TCU and Baylor.

32 PITTSBURGH – The pressure was on HC Pat Narduzzi after a 3-9 campaign in 2023, but the Panthers rolled out of the gate in 2024 7-0, their best start since the Dan Marino days of the early 80s. But freshman QB Eli Holstein, who had led Pitt to a bunch of close wins early on, was knocked out with an injury, and the season ended in a 0-6 tailspin. Holstein is back and with better injury luck can pick up where he left off from the first half of the season. They lose their top QR from a year ago, but the next two return as do 3 starters on the o-line. DT Sean FitzSimmons and DE Jimmy Scott return to anchor the D line, but the strength on the defense is the linebacker corps. All 3 starters that referred to themselves as the “Sharks” are back, including All American Kyle Louis (15.5 TFL, 7 sacks, 4 INTs). The schedule does not include Clemson, but does have Miami, Louisville, Ga Tech in the ACC plus WVU and Notre Dame in OOC games. Narduzzi needs a good season, and Holstein is good enough to get the Panthers back to a bowl.

33 SAN JOSE STATE – HC Ken Niumatalolo won 7 games in his inaugural season with San Jose St, the first coach to do so since 1992; it could have easily been 8 wins but for a 2OT loss to Washington St in the regular season and a 5OT loss to USF in the bowl. QB Waker Eget took over their “Spread and Shred” offense late in the year and lit up Boise State for 446 yards passing, albeit in a loss. Their top 3 RBs return as do 3 starters on the o-line, so the run game should be much improved. On D, the line is experienced and is the best SJSU has had in several years. The Spartans will be overmatched in their marquee OOC game at Texas, but in the MW, do not play Boise or UNLV. Boise is the big favorite to win the MW but SJSU is a legitimate threat to make the conference title game.

34 IOWA STATE – 2024 was an incredible season in Ames, Iowa, as the Cyclones won 10 games for the first time in their 133 years of football, then added to that with a win over Miami in the bowl game. HC Matt Campbell has done an amazing job and has quickly become the school’s all-time winningest coach. Expectations for 2025 start with an experienced QB in Rocco Becht, who threw for over 300 yards again and is in sight of Brock Purdy’s school records. Unfortunately, both his top WRs from last year have moved on, but Campbell brought in former ECU WR from East Carolina – 1300 yards the last 2 years. Iowa St uses their TEs more than most programs and has 2 good ones headed into 2025. The o line is experienced but wasn’t good in 2024 (Becht’s scrambling helped), so this group is a question. On defense, the linebacker corps returns intact, and this is the strength on that side of the ball. Both the line and secondary lose some All-Conference performers. The schedule starts with Farmageddon in Ireland (K State) and includes the usual OOC rivalry game early in the season with Iowa, but the Cyclones don’t face Utah or Texas Tech and get BYU and Arizona State at home. Iowa’s state is much less experienced than last year and harder for this program to fill in holes with highly rated transfers, but Campbell has worked magic before.

35 SOUTHERN MISS – USM has been a decent non-power league program for decades, but hit bottom in 2024 – 1-11 finish while losing games by scores like 58-3 to Texas St and 52-10 at Troy. So why are they here? Currently, a program can be completely remade in just one offseason. HC Charles Huff won the Sun Belt title last season, then Marshall declined to renew his contract. Huff was hired by USM and brought with him staff members and many of his top players. On offense, QB Braylon Braxton was a dual threat last year at Marshall with a sparkling 19-2 ratio. Huff also brought almost his entire WR corps with him to Hattiesburg. On defense, the DC Jsaon Semore also came from Marshall, after allowing just 23 ppg to the Herd opponents. USM was -19 in turnover margin, and this should also improve dramatically. I’m taking a flyer on the Eagles being in the top 35 here, but I do expect a dramatic turnaround, and USM will be competitive in the Sun Belt West.

Below is my forecast for the Top 25, plus 10 more that are the next best.

Caution! Prepare yourself for a very different year in how college football works. This forecast is for the final AP poll rankings that come out after all the bowls and the championship game of the playoffs. Note that for the playoffs, seeds do not match the rankings (as they do for all other sports in the NCAA playoffs). The top 4 seeds (which get a first round bye) will be the highest rated conference champions, not the top 4 teams in the rankings. My forecast playoff teams are the top 11 teams in this ranking plus the highest ranked G5 team, in this case Memphis.