| 1 | Georgia – the Bulldogs were rolling towards defending their national championship, but the 3 pt loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game was to the wrong team at the wrong time, and UGA missed the playoffs. But with the most talented roster and coach combo in college football (with Nick Saban’s surprising retirement), again the national title race is going to start with the Bulldogs. QB Carson Beck took over for Stetson Bennett and after rough patches early, the offense was humming again. TE Brock Bowers is a big loss, but on offense UGA brought in RB Travis Etienne and receivers London Humphreys (Vanderbilt), and Colbie Young (Miami) to fill in. The defense lost 4 starters to the NFL, but that’s the least in the past 4 years. Starting Edge Chaz Chambliss returns along with two very experienced linemen in Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson and former 5* Mykel Williams is already in the conversation for one of the top picks in the 2025 NFL draft. The schedule is tougher with games at Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas, but unlike last year, one hiccup won’t keep the Dawgs out of the playoffs. |
| 2 | Ohio State – “suffered” though perhaps the most disappointing 11-2 season a team has ever had, losing again to rival Michigan, flopping in a bowl loss, then watching the Wolverines win the national title. However, Ryan Day has not been sitting back just watching since. The Buckeyes went all in on the portal, bringing in QB Will Howard from K State, and in a big surprise, also added Ole Miss star RB Quinshon Judkins. Day not only brought in star players but brought in a star coach, when Chip Kelly stunned the college football world, leaving his job as HC of UCLA to become the Ohio State OC. And in today’s world, it’s not only who you bring in but who you keep – and a number of key players, especially on defense returned. This group includes defensive ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and cornerback Denzel Burke.In the new Big Ten, Ohio State does get one of the tougher draws – Michigan, Penn State, Iowa and Oregon. But with Michigan rebuilding, this is the Buckeyes best shot at the Big Ten and even national title in many years. |
| 3 | Oregon – two losses to Washington kept the Ducks out of the playoffs, but the biggest win was HC Dan Lanning turning down the Bama job to remain in Eugene. Oregon loses QB Bo Nix, but Lanning was very aggressive in the portal, and former Oklahoma starter at QB Dillion Gabriel may be an ‘easy button’ replacement. Also arriving are S Kobe Savage (Kansas State) and CB Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) to fill in holes in the secondary. Ducks also had the 4th rated recruiting class to add to their talent. Oregon does draw Ohio State and Michigan from the BIg Ten’s old guard, but not Penn State or Iowa. Ducks are just behind Ohio State as favorites in the Big Ten. |
| 4 | Alabama -After the loss to Michigan in the playoffs, it appeared we were headed for another season where the Tide was in the top group of favorites for the 2024 national tite. Then the seismic news that not only rocked T-Town, but all of college football when the GOAT himself, HC Nick Saban announced his retirement. Alabama moved quickly to being in former Washington HC Kalen DeBoer, who’s been extremely successful wherever he’s been (including taking the Huskies to the championship game last year). Bama lost a number of elite recruits in the portal right away, but DeBoer has quickly righted the ship – including OT Kadyn Proctor cup off coffee (plate of corn?) with Iowa before returning to Tuscaloosa. It didn’t help that OC Ryan Grubb left to join the Seahawks shortly after DeBoer was hired. But this is still arguably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the nation and QB Jalen Milroe returns with much more experience than he started 2023 with. Tide does face Georgia in the regular season for a change (in Tuscaloosa), but gets OU not Texas and does not face long time West rival Ole MIss. Definitely a transition year, but DeBoer has excelled in each stop in his career. |
| 5 | Mississippi – After leading the Rebels to their first 11 win season in history, HC Lane Kiffin has once again gone hard in the portal to keep the mojo going. QB Jaxson Dart returns to lead the offense that scored over 35 points a game last season, but the big offseason work was done on defense. Kiffin brought in sought after DT Walter Nolen from Texas A&M, defensive end Princely Umanmielen from Florida, and linebacker Chris Paul Jr. from Arkansas. The schedule isn’t too bad for an SEC one as the Rebels skip Alabama and Texas, and get the biggest games, UGA and Oklahoma at home and don’t play a ranked OOC opponent. Ole Miss has a great chance at another 11 win season, and under this year’s format, get the Rebels into the playoffs. |
| 6 | Penn State – the expanded 12 team playoff will benefit teams like the Nittany Lions the most, a typically good but not great team that wins a lot of games but not against the elite programs so will not finish in the top 4. PSU brings back QB Drew Allar, but the Lion offense struggled against the better defenses in 2023. HC James Franklin brought in Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to get the offense, and passing game in particular to the next level. With RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both returning, the run game is in good hands. DC Manny Diaz left to become HC at Duke, so Franklin brought in former Indiana HC Tom Allen. PSUs defense should be solid again. The schedule is interesting, with no Michigan or Iowa from the old guard, and no game against the best of the new additions, Oregon. Penn State’s offense needs to improve but the schedule is manageable enough for a top 3 finish in the Big 10 and a playoff berth. |
| 7 | Notre Dame – Irish took heralded former Wake QB Sam Hartman from the portal last year, and ended 2023 with a solid 10-3 record. HC Marcus Freeman enters his 3rd year and will again rely on a highly regarded former ACC QB in 2024. This time it’s Riley Leonard from Duke, expected to be fully recovered from his ankle injury last season. Freeman also brought in OC Mike Denbrock, who orchestrated the incredible LSU offense last season. Losing T Joe Alt will be hard to replace, but that’s what the transfer portal is for. Irish should be solid on defense again. The schedule is very manageable with the most difficult games the road opener at Texas A&M, and home games vs FSU and Louisville. If Leonard is as good as he was early in the year with Duke, Irish can not only make the new 12 team playoff, but can make a run when they get there. |
| 8 | Texas – HC Steve Sarkisian had his breakthrough year, winning the Big 12 and making the playoff. Now Texas heads into their inaugural season in the SEC with one of the top teams in the conference. It starts with the return of QB Quinn Ewers. WR Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are big losses but Sark brought in the #1 receiver off of 3 different P5 teams: Isaiah Bond (Alabama) and Matthew Golden (Houston) and Silas Bolden (Oregon State). RB CJ Baxter season ending injury during fall practice is a huge blow, but Jaydon Blue will now have to step up as the featured back. So Anthony Hill Jr. is a budding star on defense and bringing in talent like Edge Collin Simmons former Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba will continue the defense’s improvement. The schedule features a monster OOC at Michigan (although Wolverines in a serious rebuild w/o their HC or QB, and get OU and Georgia back to back. Horn’s do miss Ole Miss and Alabama, the other top teams in the conference. Sark’s program has improved in each year, culminating in last season’s elite team. But that brings the number of elite teams under Sark to 1. The win over Alabama last year was great (and got the Horns into the playoffs), but facing the SEC talent week-in and week-out is going to be a new ball game. |
| 9 | Utah – the story for the Utes in 2023 was injuries as long time HC Kyle Whittingham held the team together with bandages and medical tape. It was not sustainable though as Utah lost 4 of the last 6. But QB Cam Rising is expected to be back and fully healthy in ’24 and the entire o-line returns. TE Brant Kuithe and RB Micah Bernard are also coming back after suffering knee injuries in 2023. The newly configured Big 12 looks wide open in 2024, the bad luck of all the injuries last season may pay dividends this year. The Utes don’t play a ranked OOC opponent, play at Oklahoma State and get Arizona at home (in back to back weeks in Sept). Utah does not play either Kansas of K-State, two of the other top contenders in the Big 12. |
| 10 | Clemson – Clemson was the co-favorite with FSU headed into the ’23 season, with much heralded new OC Garrett Riley mentoring former blue chip recruit QB Cade Klubnik to bring the Tigers offense close to the Lawrence-Watson days. But a shocking blowout loss to Duke in the opener and agonizing OT loss to FSU, left the Tigers with 2 conference losses and out of the race before September ended. But 5 straight wins to end the season, including an upset of Top 20 Notre Dame has fans optimistic that in the 2nd year of working with Klubnik, Riley can get a more productive offense. Unusually mediocre play by the o-line was also a big factor in the Tiger’s offensive struggles last year, but the hire of former Ole Miss HC and o-line guru Matt Luke should lead to significant improvement. The defense carried the team last season, finishing in the top ten in both total defense and yards per play allowed, and looks to be strong again in ’24, as 4 true Fr on defense, play extensively and earned high grades from PFF – DL Peter Woods, S Khalil Barnes, DB Avieon Terrell and EDGE T.J. Parker. The defense overall though is not experienced although it is very talented. The schedule starts with a monster match-up Georgia (a likely loss) and features home games vs NC State and Louisville with a big conference showdown at FSU in early October. The Tigers do not play Miami. FSU finally wrestled away the conference championship from Clemson last season, but is significantly rebuilding. Clemson has the opportunity to take back the ACC crown and call last season a one off; or relinquish their spot in the ACC hierarchy. |
| 11 | Tennessee – It’s Nico time in Knoxville, and by that I mean former 5* uber QB recruit Nico Lamaleava, takes over the offense after leading the Vols to a win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. Nico will have plenty of top targets to throw to including Squirrel White, Bru McCoy (back healthy) and Tulane’s leading receiver in 2023, Chris Brazzell II. The offense may get the pub at Tennessee, but the D isn’t too shabby, finishing #19 in the country in yards per play allowed and had 36 sacks on the season, a school record. DE Tyler Baron left thru the portal, but all SEC Edge James Pearce returns (projected top 10 pick in the NFL draft, 16.5 TFL and 12 sacks in his 1st two seasons) and the top 5 DTs all return. The big rebuild is in the secondary where all starters are gone. Transfers will make up the bulk of the starters, including Jermond McCoy coming off a solid fr season at Oregon State. Even with the new look SEC in 24, the Vols still get both Georgia (away) and Bama (home) but do avoid Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. The 2nd weekend of the season features an interesting OOC game vs NC State in Charlotte. Vols might not quite be in that top tier in the SEC, but the best team in the middle of the pack will still be in contention for an at large playoff spot. |
| 12 | Miami – HC Mario Cristobal is developing a reputation for giving away games that his team has enough talent to win. The most glaring recent example the freakish loss to GA Tech this past season, when a kneel down with a minute to go would have won the game. But Cristobal has consistently been a great recruiter and he is now aggressively using the portal to improve the Cane’s talent. Persistence was the name of the game and Miami was rewarded with landing formar Washington St QB Cam Ward, one of it not the top QB on the transfer market. And Cristobal isn’t done, as Miami recently added RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State, who rushed for over 1100 yards with the Beavers. The Miami schedule begins with a trip to Florida, and they also go to Louisville, but VA Tech and FSU come to Miami Gardens. At this point, the talent level at Miami will be so high (compared to their schedule) that even Cristobal won’t be able to screw it up, and the Canes are one of the favorites to win the conference. |
| 13 | Michigan – speaking of transitions, the Wolverines finally broke through under HC Jim Harbaugh in ’23, not only beating Ohio State again and winning the Big 10, but defeating the SEC champion in the playoffs on the way to the national championship. Then it went downhill from there – unlike the shocking move by Saban, Harbaugh leaving for the NFL was generally expected, and he took his DC and S&C coach with him. New HC Sherrone Moore was the Wolverines OC and filled in at HC when Harbaugh was suspended for the spying scandal. Moore brought in the former NY Giants DC in Wink Martindale who will run a similar defensive scheme. As for the players, much of the experienced talent from ’23 has moved on including QB JJ Mccarthy, RB Blake Corum and most of the o-line.; but some of the stars on D are back including CB Will Johnson (4 INTs last year) and DT Mason Graham (7.5 TFL) The schedule features a monster OOC game when Texas visits in week 2 and showdowns with Ohio State and Big Ten newcomer Oregon. Moore appears to be ready for a HC position and the transition will be easier, but there is a lot of talent to replace. |
| 14 | FSU – Maybe the worst ending in college football history to a dream season, when the undefeated ACC champs lost their starting QB to injury, their backup QB to injury, were left out of the playoff, drew the team that was #1 the entire regular season, had 12 starters opt out of the bowl, where they were rolled by UGA. After entering 2023 as a very experienced team, the opposite will be true this year. Former QB Jordan Travis leads a long list of starters off to the NFL. But HC Mike Norvell has been slowly building the talent thru traditional recruiting and has been one of the best at using the portal to fill in. And that starts with presumed starter at QB, DJ Uiagalelei, who spent last year at Oregon State after 2 seasons at FSU’s rival Clemson. DJU is an experienced, dual threat QB, but after 3 years as a P5 starter may already be at his ceiling. The running game though looks solid with Alabama transfer Roydell Williams added to returning Lawrence Toafili. The defense was phenomenal late in the year vs Florida and Louisville, and there may not be much off a drop off. Jared Verse is off to the NFL but Seminole legacy and former Georgia Bulldog Marvin Jones Jr looked the part of wrecking ball edge rusher in the Spring “game”. The secondary also lost talent to the NFL but Norvell brought in reinforcements through the portal. The schedule is much more difficult this year (going from #61 to #12 according to Phil Steele) and includes the showdown with Clemson (in Tallahassee) relatively early in the year, tricky Sept games vs Memphis and at SMU and then a late season stretch at Miami, vs North Carolina and at Notre Dame that will likely make or break the year for the Noles. |
| 15 | Oklahoma St – Utah might be the slight favorite to win the new Big 12, but the Pokes are very close behind. Their star on the team is RB Ollie Gordon II, who led the FBS in rushing with 1,732 yards in 2023. OK State also returns QB Alan Bowman, playing his 7th season of college football, plus all five starting o-lineman and leading receiver Brennan Presley. The Cowboys picked up a couple of key transfers to shore up the defense. The schedules includes home game with FCS power South Dakota State and SEC member Arkansas, but many key conference games are on the road , including Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and TCU. |
| 16 | LSU – The Tiger offense was phenomenal in 2023 and look no further than the NFL draft for final proof – Heisman Trophy winning QB Jayden Daniels was taken 2nd, and two WR’s went in the top 25 of the draft. The heir apparent at QB is Garrett Nussmeier after an impressive performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Those two WRs will be missed, but HC Brian Kelly brought in experienced transfers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State) to fill in. The D was a mess in 2023 so Kelly made a number of changes to the staff, included throwing $2.5 million at the former Missouri DC Blake Baker to come to LSU. There is talent on defense to work with, including LB Harold Perkins. Kelly also brought in several DBs from the portal to shore up a secondary that really struggled in ’23. LSU opens with a Caleb Williams less USC and faces their old SEC West foes, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M plus newbie OU. Kelly has some rebuilding to do but there is always talent in Baton Rouge. |
| 17 | Missouri – Tigers are coming off one of the best seasons in program history, going 11-2, with wins over Florida and Tennessee in the division and over Ohio State in the bowl. HC Eli Drinkwitz brings back leading WR Luther Burden (1200+ yards receiving) and QB Brady Cook (3300 yds passing, 365 passes wi/o INT is SEC record) on offense. The Tigers lose their top RB in Cody Shrader, but hope that transfer Marcus Carroll (1300 yards rushing and 13 TDs for Georgia State last year) will be a suitable replacement. The defense has more rebuilding to do, including DC Blake Baker who left for LSU. DBs Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. as well as LB Ty’ron Hopper are all gone, but Drinkwitz has been using the portal to rebuild.This includes defensive help from Clemson, Georgia and Florida. The OOC schedule does not include a top 30 team and in conference, the Tigers draw Alabama, A&M and OU, with open dates before A&M and OU. If the transfers can fill in the holes on D, Mizzou could easily finish higher than this, but last year was such an outlier, there’s a chance they regress back a bit. |
| 18 | K State – The Wildcats have become a consistent successful program under HC Chris Klieman, but some rebuilding is needed for 2024. Experienced QB WIll Howard transferred to Ohio State, but dual threat Avery Johnson looked good in the win over NC State in the Pop Tarts Bowl. K-State’s OC also left (for Texas A&M) and Klieman replaced him with the former O-Line coach Matt Wells, who had been a HC at Texas Tech. The o-line must be classified as a rebuild as 4 of the 5 starters depart. The September schedule in the newly expanded Big 12 will make or break the Wildcats in 2024 as it goes at Tulane, Arizona, at BYU, OK State. They do get a break and don’t draw Utah, one of the favorites for the Big 12 Title. |
| 19 | Iowa – the new national pastime last season became tracking the Iowa offense to see if they could make the points goals established by the AD or OC Brian Ferentz (HC Kirk’s son) would be fired. The Hawkeyes averaged 15.4 ppg, ranking next to last in FBS. Brian Ferentz was shown the door and former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester was brought in to improve the struggling offense. Meanwhile, the defense and special teams were excellent in 2023, and Iowa won 10 games in spite of the offense. The optimism for 2024 is that the defense will still be very good as some 6 year seniors, including DB Jermari Harris and LB Jay Higgins return. The offense should be better with a healthy Cade McNamara (lost for the season in game 5) and the change at OC. In most case, losing the starting P is not that big of a deal, but it is at Iowa as Tory Taylor was key in several of Iowa’s wins. But it’s the schedule that may be the most helpful in allowing Iowa to finish in the Top 25, as the Hawkeyes skip Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and USC, and Nebraska and Wisconsin come to Iowa City. |
| 20 | Texas A&M – The Jimbo Fisher era came to a close at A&M, not with multiple national titles but a loss to OK State in the Texas Bowl. After paying the largest buyout in history to move on from Fisher, the Aggies went a different direction from the big splash hire and brought back Mike Elko after two years as HC at Duke. Elko is very familiar with the program as he was the DC there before he went to Durham. Elko was immediately successful as Duke was 3-9 (0-8 ACC) in David Cutcliffe’s last season, but went 9-4 (5-3) in Elko’s first year and 8-5 (4-4) in his second, even though the starting QB was injured during the 5th game and featured the opening upset of then #9 Clemson. A&M brings back QB Conner Weigman and returns more production from last year than any other SEC team, as evidenced by their #13 ranking in Bill Connelly’s SP+. The Defense was a strong point of the team already and Elko brought in the #1 rated Edge Nic Scourton from Purdue, who led the Big 10 in sacks. The Aggies were 0-4 in one score games and had bad injury luck – both signs that point to an improvement in 2024. The schedule isn’t easy, but could be much tougher – big OOC opener with Notre Dame (at home), and also get Texas, LSU and Missouri in Kyle Field; and who’s not on the schedule is equally important – Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. Elko has the opportunity to make another splash as a first year coach at A&M as he did at Duke. |
| 21 | Oklahoma – HC Brent Venables 2nd season at OU went much better than the first, though ended with a loss to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. Star QB Dillion Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but former 5* Jackson Arnold made some big plays (and some mistakes too) filling in for Gabriel in the bowl. The Sooners lose their leading WR, but bring back most of the rest of the receiver corp, and add All-Big Ten Purdue WR Deion Burks. The challenge on offense is the loss of 4 of the 5 starting o-lineman. Venables will try to fix this through the portal, as he’s brought in o lineman from Michigan St, Florida and North Texas. The defense on the other hand, is very experienced, and among the returnees are two All-Americans, LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman. Venables decided to make a change at DC and Ted Roof is out and Zac Alley is in. The schedule does not feature a ranked OOC game, but does include Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri in addition to the Red River Rivalry vs Texas as an SEC game. Hope Venables is ready for a full SEC schedule! |
| 22 | Iowa State – not a great start for the Cyclones in 2023 as a disappointing loss to rival Iowa was followed by an embarrassing loss to Ohio . But HC Matt Campbell was playing the most number of freshman of any P5 program, and it started to pay dividends. Freshman QB Rocco Becht exploded onto the scene, throwing for over 3000 yards on the season, including the school single game record of 446 yards vs Memphis in the bowl; Becht was the Big 12 Freshman of the year. The Cyclones star WRs, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, combined for 199 catches and 1800 yards both return as does their top TE. The main knock on the offense is the OC left for the NFL, but the TE coach was promoted to keep the continuity going. The defense only featured one senior starter last year , and all 4 from the line return. Actually, only 2 starters from last season’s defense are not back, but that includes Corner TJ Tampa who is off to the NFL. Tampa is a notable loss, allowing only 1 TD in 414 coverage snaps, but the other starting corner and all the safeties return in ’24. The schedule has the early OOC game with rival Iowa, and does include some tough road trips in the Big 12 – WVU, Kansas and Utah, but UCF and K State come to Ames and they skip Arizona. ISU will never rank high on any talent ranking, but the experience and sensational QB could lead to another special season. |
| 23 | Virginia Tech – The Brent Pry era got off to a slow start in Blacksburg with only 3 wins in his first year. Last season continued the poor results with a 1-3 first month. But the season turned with a big win over Pitt that lead to a 6-3 finish, including a 21 point bowl victory over Tulane. Tech has a whipping 21 starters back for 2024 and rates as 31 in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings. QB Kyron Drones , a transfer from Baylor, found his groove the last 4 weeks of the season, leading the Hokies to average 43 ppg. Drones was also the team’s second leading rusher with over 800 yards on the ground. Leading rusher from ’23 Bhayshul Tuten was also a big part of the teams turnaround, with 4 100 yard rushing games in the last 8 of the season. He’ll be running behind a line that returns all of their starters! The defense allowed 24 ppg last year and with 10 starters back plus DL transfers from OU and Duke, should improve on those numbers in ’24. All special teams returns. The toughest games are at Miami and home vs Clemson; but the HOkies avoid FSU and NC State. Their OOC games are Vandy, Marshall, ODU and Rutgers. Tech could easily be 7-2 or 8-1 when Clemson visits a rocking Lane Stadium on November 9. |
| 24 | USC – HC Lincoln Riley entered the 2023 season with a Heisman Trophy winning QB and an influx of transfers to improve the defense to make a push for a playoff spot. The season ended with 5 loss Trojan team in the Holiday Bowl and Riley covered in egg nog. The glimmer of hope though was that USC’s heir apparent at QB Miller Moss threw 6 TDs in the rout of Louisville in that game. The Trojans do lose their top 2 WRs, but the replacements are all blue chippers. This includes Zacharia Branch and Duce Robinson, the #1 WR and #1 TE in the 2023 recruiting class. Even with less experience, Riley is known for producing great offenses. The challenge, as it’s been, is on D. Riley did finally make the move to fire DC Alex Grinch and brought in D’Anton Lynn from down the street at UCLA. Now only was UCLA in the top 20 in most defensive metrics last year, it was one year turnaround from ranking around 100 in those same categories just one year prior. Bear Alexander is back at DT and they add Nate Clifton who had 7.5 TFL at Vandy. Lynn brought in a number of other transfers for the defense rebuild, including 2 all Pac 12 players from Oregon State and 2 that followed him from UCLA . The schedule is tough with an OOC opener vs LSU in Vegas and ending with Notre Dame in the Coliseum. They do not face Oregon or Ohio State, but go to Michigan and get Penn State at home. If Lynn can make the same defensive improvements he did last year at UCLA, the Trojans and take a step forward after last year’s disappointment. |
| 25 | Nebraska – Temple was 4-7 in Steve Addazio’s last season with the Owls. Matt Rhule was hired and promptly went 2-10, giving Idaho their only win of the season. However, the subsequent seasons were 6-6 and then the breakthrough 10-4 in year 3. Rhule left Temple to rebuild Baylor’s program after the Art Briles scandal and one year of Jim Grobe – a 7-6 season. Rhules first year – 1-11; but then 7-6, which was followed by 11-3, and a Sugar Bowl appearance in year 3. Note the pattern? Rhule has not been an immediate turn around artist but has multiple times dramatically built teams in 2-3 years. Rhules first year at Nebraska was only 5-7 but that was a 1 game improvement. The bugaboo from the Scott Frost era continued where the Huskers struggle to win close game. The savior of Nebraska football has arrived as 5* QB recruit Dylan Riola spurned the mighty Georgia Bulldogs to come to Lincoln and has looked the part so far in Spring practice. Also, the Huskies get a big break in the schedule not facing Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. The tough stretch comes late in the season with USC, Iowa and Wisconsin in a row. But the opportunity is there for a bowl game or more in Rhule’s second year. |
| 26 | Memphis – The Tigers are off their first 10 win season since Mike Norvell led them to as 12-2 record and Cotton Bowl berth in 2019. That 10-3 season included a 7pt loss to Missouri (finished #8 in the nation) and by 3 to AAC Champ SMU. Their success was primarily due to a prolific offense that averaged an AAC best 39 ppg. QB Seth Henigan is a big reason why, and he is back for this 4th year as a starter, a rarity in this transfer happy era. He threw for over 3800 yards in ’23, and brings back his top 2 WRs in Roc Taylor (1083 yds!) and Demeer Blankumsee (901 yds). the 0-line is experienced too. The D has more questions after a season where giving up big plays was a big problem – 80 plays over 20 yards. HC Ryan Silverfield brings in two transfers safeties (from Samford and ODU) to help out right away. Memphis has one of the tougher schedules in the AAC, facing Tulane, UTSA and USF all on the road, plus an OOC trip to Tallahassee to face their former HC now at FSU. As long as Henigan stays healthy, this is one of the teams in the race for the G5 spot in the new 12 team playoffs. |
| 27 | SMU – The Mustangs lost to Oklahoma in the 2nd game of the season last year, but went 8-0 in the AAC and upset Tulane in the conference championship game to win their first conference title since 1984. The Ponies parlayed this success and their big money boosters to get back to a Power conference for the first time since the old Southwest Conference dissolved in the early 90s. HC Rhett Lashlee has typically featured a great offense and this season should be no exception. QB Preston Stone returns after throwing for over 3000 yards and a 28/6 ratio, before getting injured late in the year. Virtually all of Stone’s weapons are back, including leading rusher Jaylan Knighton and top WR Jake Bailey. Actually, SMU returns their top 4 rushers and top 7 receivers, but are somewhat rebuilding on the o-line. The defense improved dramatically from ’22 to ’23 going from 34 ppg allowed to 18!. The defense returns 7 starters, and is most experienced at linebacker, but has a few holes to fill on the line; Lashlee brought in a number of transfers to help out. The schedule is much tougher this year with the move from the American to the ACC, and it makes me a little nervous that they were 9-0 vs the AAC last year but 0-3 vs the P5. However, in ACC play they avoid Clemson, Miami, Va Tech and NC State and get FSU at home. Even with the step up in schedule difficulty, the Ponies have a great shot to make some noise in their first year in the conference. |
| 28 | Liberty – the Flames were 13-0 and Conference USA champs in 2023, and became the G5 representative in the NY6 bowls last year. That game vs Oregon did not go well and ended the dream season with a thud. But the biggest offseason news is that a) HC Jamey Chadwell did not get scooped up by a P4 program, and B) that prolific QB Kaidon Salter returns to Liberty after briefly entering the transfer portal. He threw for 2,876 yards and 32 touchdowns, completing 61% of his passes. He ranked fourth nationally in yards per attempt (9.92) and third in yards per completion (16.2). He also ran for 1,089 yards and 12 touchdowns, ranking 36th nationally and third among QBs. Last season, the Flames faced a much weaker schedule than the other top G5 teams, but used that to their advantage as the undefeated record got them past other teams with worse records but much tougher schedules. It could happen again in 2024, getting Liberty into the playoffs as the top G5 team. Only Western Kentucky seems much of a threat in the conference, and the OOC games are all winnable, but more difficult than last year. The toughest tests are home games with East Carolina and WKU and a road trip to Boone to face App State. The game with WKU could be the first of two as these are the teams favored to reach the title game. The Flames probably need to win both to get the G5 playoff bid. |
| 30 | UCF – I had high expectation for Gus Malzahn in his first year taking over the Knights, but the record ended in a disappointing 6-7. Upon further review, the team may have been better than the record suggested – a 2pt loss to OU and two 1 pt losses to Texas Tech and Baylor. Malzahn may not have acquired the best QB in the portal, but maybe it’s the best fit, with 6’3″ 250 lb KJ Jefferson transferreringto Orlando after spending 3 years in Fayetteville. Seems like Malzahn had some success in the past with a big QB that was a great runner. The Knights leading receiver did leave for the NFL but the 2nd receiver and top RB RJ Harvey return. Harvey rushed for 1416 yards, third most in school history. Malzahn added JaVarius Johnson, who was AU leading WR last year. The run defense was bad in ’23 so Malzahn brought in the much traveled Ted Roof as his DC. Roof has had several top rated rush defenses in his career. Malzahn brought in the schools highest ranking high school recruiting class and the highest ranked transfer class. The schedule features a huge OOC game at Florida Oct 5. IN the Big 12, they get Utah and Arizona at home, travel to Iowa State and WVU, and don’t face K-State, KU or OK State. UCF has a chance at a big 2nd year in the P4. |
| 29 | NC State – the Wolfpack were 9-3 in the regular season in ’23 (6-2 in the ACC) and just missed on a rare 10 win season after losing the Pop Tarts bowl. HC Dave Dorren has upped his use of the portal and snagged one of the most prolific QBs in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina (over 10,000 yards passing in his career), although there are questions on how mobile he is now after injuries. The Pack added former Duke RB Jordan Waters, who was Blue Devils leading rusher with 819 yards and 12 scores in 2023. Dorren wasn’t done in the portal with that, as State brought in a number of WR’s , including from Ohio State and Wake, and attempted at least to shore up the vacancies on defense with some DBs, including Donovan Kaufman from Auburn. Their marquee games are early with a huge OOC game vs Tennessee in week 2 in Charlotte and traveling to Clemson in week 4. The Pack do not face either FSU or Miami. Dorren has built a solid program in Raleigh, can he take advantage of a very experienced QB and manageable schedule to have a breakthrough year? |
| 31 | Kansas – the key to the Jayhawks continued resurgence (9 wins in ’23), is the health of QB Jalen Daniel’s, but maybe the most important factor was that HC Lance Leipold did not parlay his success into a bigger job, but returns to Lawrence. The WR room is experienced and RB Devin Neal returned to set the KU all time rushing record. A bit of a mixed bag on defense, with a good backend, featuring 2 of the big 12s best corners in Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson. The front four lose their two best, but do have some depth that can step up to fill in. At Illinois is the one p4 OOC game, ,and U.K. beat the Illini last year; the new look big 12 schedule does include road games vs WVU, K-State, and BYU, but the Jayhawks skip conference contenders Utah and Arizona. Leipold 30 seniors back from a team that had 3 close losses last year, and is a possible contender for the conference championship. |
| 32 | Louisville – the campaign run by the big Cardinals boosters to bring Jeff Brohm back “home” to Louisville finally came to fruition in 2023, and they were rewarded immediately. Brohm followed up his appearance with Purdue in the Big 10 Championship game, by leading Louisville to their first ever appearance in the ACC championship game. The 3 straight losses to end the year, including to a struggling Kentucky team dampened the spirits a bit, but a 10 win regular season highlighted by a big win vs Notre Dame was everything the fans dreamed of when Brohm returned. The Cardinals finished in the top 25 last year in total defense and #10 in 3rd down conversion D. All 4 starting d linemen return, including all ACC Ashton Gillotte at DE. Two starting Dbs left for the NFL but Brohm added former Tennessee S Tamarian McDonald and FCS All American Blake Ruffin among others. The offense is a bigger rebuild, but Brohm is also one of the Portal Kings, bringing in 31 transfers – #2 in the country – and ranked in the Top 15 in the portal class. The key transfer is the much traveled Tyler Shough, the QB at Oregon and Texas Tech, now in his 7th year in college. Shough is very experienced but is coming off a season ending injury. The schedule features a return matchup with Notre Dame, this time in South Bend, a trip to Clemson and a visit from Miami, but no FSU, VA Tech or NC State. If the transfers on offense can jell around an experienced transfer QB, the Cards could once again take advantage of a manageable schedule to be a contender in the ACC. |
| 33 | Boise State – It was not looking good on the blue turf when the Broncos returned from a loss to Fresno, dropping their record to 4-5. HC Andy Avalos would get fired and replaced by an interim, DC Spencer Danielson. The players responded, the team won out, took the Mountain West title and the interim title was dropped. Fr (now So) Maddux Madsen was primarily the backup QB last season, but did play more and more until he suffered from a season ending injury. The other 2 QBs transferred out, but Boise was the recipient of blue chipper QB Malachi Nelson. Madsen seemed the best of the QB room last year, so expect more production in 2024. Star RB Ashton Jeanty returns after 1300+ yards on the ground and the Mtn West award for POY. Four of the olineman are back as well. The defense returns 11 starters, including all 4 on the interior line and the DL should be the best in the conference. The schedule features a tricky OOC opener at GA Southern, then almost a guaranteed loss at Oregon. But in the MW, Boise skips Fresno and Air Force. It makes me nervous when a interim has some success and is popular with the players, so he gets the permanent job. Historically, this doesn’t usually work out, but time will tell for Boise. |
| 34 | Rutgers – They say a team takes on the personality of its head coach, and that is definitely the case in New Brunswick. Rutgers features a run first, ball control offense that complements a solid defense in HC Greg Schiano’s second stint with the program. RB Kyle Monangai is the centerpiece of that offense and he returns in ’24. His 1262 yards led the Big Ten and was the first player at Rutgers since 2012 to top 1000 yards. Three of the Knights 0-lineman earned Big 10 honors and all return. The Rutgers passing attack could use some tweaking, after ranking 127th in the country last season. Kurt Ciarrocca is expected to be the starting QB after transferring in from Minnesota, but his 2023 with the Gophers was pedestrian. Run, run, run will be the theme again in ’24. The defense was a strength of the team and 8 starters are back; 9 if you include Tyreem Powell who played the first 8 games before he was out for the year due to injury. The secondary should be very good again with the top 3 all returning. The schedule is quite amazing actually, with a tough OOC at Virginia Tech (after Rutgers upset the Hokies last year), but somehow, the Knights don’t play any of the top 5 teams in the Big Ten – Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, or Iowa. The opportunity is there for a good season by Rutgers standards. |
| 35 | Texas State – College Football’s “Portal King” may reside in Boulder, Tallahassee or Oxford… but don’t forget about San Marcos! HC GJ Kinne (KENNY) has worked the portal masterfully to lead the Bobcats to their best season in their short history in FBS, and excitement is high for 2024. The first game in the Kinne era was an upset of Baylor as a 27 pt underdog and was followed a few weeks later by laying a77 spot on Jackson State. The Bobcats went to and won a bowl game, their first in both categories ever. TJ Finley (transfer from NC State) threw for nearly 3500 yards to lead the offense last season, but left for WKY in the offseason. Kinne brought in QB Jordan McCloud from James Madison, the Sun Belt POY after throwing for 3600 yards and a 35-10 ratio. Surrounding Finley is their top RB Ismail Mahdi (1300 yds rushing) and 4 of their top 5 receivers. The defense is experienced too, with 9 starters back and expected to have the best d-line in the conference. The schedule is very favorable with the biggest OOC a home game vs Arizona State, and the Bobcats skip App State and several other top contenders from the Sun Belt East. Texas State has the chance to break their record for wins in a season (set last year with 8). |
Tag Archives: Texas Longhorns
2023 Forecast College Football Top 35
| 1. Georgia – After winning their first national title since 1980, the Bulldogs lost 15 players to the NFL Draft… and followed that up with an undefeated national title in 2022. Another load of players will be off to the NFL, including underrated QB Stetson Bennett and star DT Jalen Carter, but the total number of losses is less than last year. The offense returns TE Brock Bowers and gets the top WRs from Miss State (Rara Thomas) and Missouri (Dominic Lovett), should provide ample weapons for Carson Beck or whomever wins the starting QB job. The defense completely reloaded in 2022 but with 6 starters back, is actually better positioned than coming into last season. With OOC games vs Ball State, UT Martin, UAB and GA Tech, and no Bama, A&M or LSU from the West, the schedule is laughably easy and give the Dawgs time to work out any kinks with a new QB. And once UGA makes the playoff, the depth of talent and coaching means a 3 peat is very possible. |
| 2. Michigan – HC Jim Harbaugh, QB JJ McCarthy and RB Blake Corum all are returning to Michigan in 2023, making the Wolverines, not the Buckeyes, the favorites in the Big Ten. Harbaugh’s Wolverines again beat Ohio State to win the conference and make the playoffs. A loss to TCU in the semifinal was disappointing, especially with several fluky plays that could have gone the other way. But with the offensive stars and 8 starters back on defense, Michigan has a great opportunity to make it back to the playoffs and get that shot at a national title. The schedule is very manageable, beginning with ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers at home; then trips to Nebraska and Minnesota, before games with Indiana then at Michigan State before an off date at Halloween. Penn State is on the road Nov 11 and the season ender with Ohio State is at home. |
| 3. Ohio State – If there ever was a disappointing 11-2 season, this was it. After dominating the Michigan series in recent years, the Buckeyes dropped their 2nd straight to their biggest rivals, snuck into the playoffs only to have a huge win over a dominant Georgie team slip between their fingers in the last minute. Now they have to regroup without NFL draft overall first pick QB CJ Stroud and WR Jaxon Smith-Jigba. WR Marvin Hariison and RB TreVeyon Henderson are back though to give whichever QB (likely Kyle McCord) wins the starting job some great weapons. The defense returns 7 starters but finished the season poorly in games against Michigan and Georgia. The schedule is highlighted by the usual divisional matchups with Penn State and Michigan, and includes a road trip to Notre Dame in week 4. |
| 4. USC – Lincoln Riley’s first year at USC exemplified why the Trojans made the hire in the first place – a Heisman Trophy winning QB leading an explosive offense for a team coming off a 4-8 season that nearly made the playoffs. The other component of a Riley coached team also reared its ugly head with a terrible defense that contributed to two losses to Utah and surrendering 46 points in a loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. QB Caleb Williams is back as are WRs Mario Williams, Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice. They add WR Dorian Singer (who led the Pac 12 in receiving yards last year at Arizona) to add to the embarrassment of riches on O. The defense needs some work and Riley brought in a number of transfers on that side of the ball, including LB Mason Cobb who had 96 tackles last season at OK State. The schedule is tougher in ’23 with both Washington and Oregon now added when the Trojans didn’t face either last season. Just a competent defense should be enough with this offense to get USC into the playoff race. |
| 5. Alabama – A very disappointing season by Tide’s standards, with 2 regular season losses, no appearance in the SECCG or playoffs. And with the best offensive player in college football, QB Bryce Young and the best defensive one, Edge Will Anderson, both off to the NFL, there are more questions around the program than in many years. Talent isn’t an issue, as the Tide continues to load up in recruiting, finishing with the #1 class in 2023 after falling to 2nd (behind A&M) last season. Alabama was mistake prone, turnovers and penalties, in their 2 close losses last year, I expect HC Nick Saban to have that addressed this season. The big question is at QB, where the Tide lost out in the Sam Hartman sweepstakes but got former ND QB Tyler Buchner from the portal. It’s very risky to pick against Saban, and the last time his teams did not make the playoffs (BCS or 4 team) was his first 2 years at Alabama. Still, at this moment, it seems that the Tide have more questions going into a season than any other time in recent memory. |
| 6. LSU – A number of pundits were concerned about the fit of Brian Kelly at LSU, but turned out he fit into the Tiger fam-uh-lee just fine. In Kelly’s first year, the Tigers defeated Alabama, made the SEC Champ Game and finished with 10 wins. With QB Jayden Daniels and most of his weapons on offense like WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas, plus TE Mason Taylor returning and all 5 o-lineman, expectations on the Bayou are sky high going in to 2023. The defense was mostly solid but struggled with the top offenses it faced but will build around superstar LB Harold Perkins Jr and has some key additions via the portal to help out. The schedule starts with a bang, vs FSU in Orlando, where the Seminoles themselves also have high expectations for the season, in what will likely be the only top 10 matchup opening weekend. The Tigers go to Bama this year, but don’t face Tennessee and especially UGA from the East. A win in the opener and a Top 10 finish gets more likely. |
| 7. FSU – After a very unimpressive start to the Mike Norvell era, the Seminoles season wins have gone from 3 to 5 to 10 – the first double digit winning season since 2016. And now FSU is in good position for even better things in 2023. It starts with the return of QB Jordan Travis; Travis has always been a good runner but he put on a show last season through the air, completing 64% of his passes and throwing for over 3200 yards. His top WR, the 6’7″ Johnny Wilson (21 yards per catch) and leading rusher Trey Benson, also return. The o-line has been a weakness for years, but enough returning starters and fortified through the transfer portal, its now a strength. BIgger challenges await on a defense that looked fine statistically but really struggled against the better offenses (noticeable in the 45-38 win vs UF and 35-32 vs OU). Star edge rusher Jared Verse turned down the NFL draft to return and help from the transfer portal is also on the way for the D, tackle Braden Fiske (Western Michigan) and cornerback Fentrell Cypress II (Virginia) should help. As noted above, schedule starts with a bang vs LSU in Orlando, another program with high expectations for ’23. The ACC eliminated the nonsensical divisions, so the game at Clemson in late Sept might just be a preview of the ACC champ game. |
| 8. Clemson – the Cade Klubnik era has begun at Clemson as former starter DJ Uiagalelei transferred to Oregon State. Klubnik was inconsistent in his performance vs Tennessee in the Orange Bowl, but with new OC Garrett Riley, expectations are high. Riley, the ’22 Broyles Award winner, turned a middle of the road TCU offense into a top 10 unit, and Riley led offenses have averaged over 38 pts per game over the past 3 years. Klubnik has a super talent on his side in RB WIll Shipley, who ran for 1182 yards and had 242 yards receiving last season. A star needs to emerge from the WR corp and that could be Antonio Williams, named to several Freshman All American teams after leading the Tigers in catches and yards last year. There are a few holes to fill on defense, including Edge Myles Murphy, but 8 starters on D return, including DT Tyler Davis. The schedule sets up nicely as the two highest ranked teams (FSu and NOtre Dame) both come to Death Valley (FSu early and Notre Dame late). The season ends as always with the rivalry game vs South Carolina, this year in Columbia. Expect Riley to get the offense on track and this will look more like previous Clem teams than the last 2 years. |
| 9. Penn State- The Nittany Lions had another 11 win season, this one capped by a Rose Bowl win over Utah, but as also true for the others, did not end in a playoff berth. Could this be the year? The offense was great last year but loses star QB Sean Clifford. Fans in Happy Valley are ready and excited to see what uber recruit Drew Allar can do, and will have RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the back field to help. The defense was much improved under first year DC Manny Diaz, finishing in the top 20 in total and scoring defense. With most of the front 7 back, the D could be even better in 2023. The schedule is very manageable (top OOC game is home vs WVU) and as usual will come down to the 2 biggies – at Ohio State in October and home vs Michigan in November. Get one of those, and Penn State is very much alive in the playoff hunt. |
| 10. Washington – HC Kalen DeBoer had a fantastic first season, improving the Huskies by an amazing 7 games and winning Pac 12 Coach of the Year honors. He had help though, especially from OC Ryan Grubb to bring the Huskie offense out of the doldrums and into an aerial attack not seen in Seattle in decades. QB Michael Penix set all kinds of school records from season passing yards (4641 yds) to single game passing yards (516 yds vs Arizona). Penix returns as a Heisman candidate, and so does Grubb, turning down mega offers from a couple of SEC schools. The Huskies had 2 1000 yard receivers for the first time in history and both Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan return. The leading rusher is gone, but the rest of the RB room is back; there is some rebuilding on the o-line as 3 starters depart. The passing defense was the big liability in ’22, but a lot of that was due to numerous injuries in the secondary. With 8 starters back on D, better health will likely bring much better results. The schedule is more difficult this season – home vs Boise and at Michigan State are on the OOC schedule. Huskies will be notable favorites but both of these teams have talent. The bigger story is in conference, where the Huskies skipped both USC and Utah last season (the 2 teams in the conf champ game) but face both in ’22. The combo of Deboer, Grubb and Penix means Washington is a Pac 12 champion and playoff contender. |
| 11. Notre Dame – An up and down season if there ever was one for the Irish in 2022. Notre Dame looked good in an opening loss to Ohio State, followed by ugly losses to Stanford and Marshall, but wins over UNC and Clemson (the two ACCCG participants) and a win over a hot South Carolina in the bowl finished the season looking up. The big news in the offseason was the arrival of transfer QB Sam Hartman from Wake. Hartman has thrown for over 13000 yards in 5 years with the Deacs – you can’t get much better or more experienced than that! THe top 3 tailbacks and top 3 -lineman return, so there’s a lot of experience around Hartman, although super star TE Michael Mayer to the NFL Is a big loss on offense. Six starters are back on the defense that limited opponents to 5.2 yards per play. The schedule is the usual cross country barnstorming, with the biggest games vs USC and Ohio State at home and a late season trip to Clemson. If the offensive staff from Notre Dame can get as much out of Hartman as Wake’s did, the sky’s the limit for this team. |
| 12. Oregon – the Dan Lanning era at Oregon started with a thud, a 46 pt loss to Georgia in Atlanta. But the Ducks rallied, winning 7 straight games and finishing 10-3. The losses were painful though with a 3pt loss to rival Washington can a 4pt loss to instate rival Oregon State. QB Bo Nix has a great year after transferring in from Auburn, but will have a new OC in ’23 (Kenny Dillingham HC at Arizona St now). A couple of transfers (from Alabama and Troy will give Nix experience at WR and the RB room is solid with Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington returning. Lanning was the architect behind the phenomenal defense at UGA the previous year before taking on the HC job at Oregon, but the Duck’s defense wasn’t great in ’22. The challenge in ’23 is top defensive players LB Noah Sewel and CB Christian Gonzalez are off to the NFL. But Lanning had a top 1- recruiting class in his first full recruiting season, so more talent is on its way. |
| 13. Texas – Even with the loss of Bijan Robinson, Horn’s seemed poised for bigger things this year after a number of closs losses in ’22. The future is now with Quinn Ewers taking over the QB position and not really a competition at this point. WR Adonai Mitchell from UGA is a big addition to his available weapons. The o-line returns 4 starters to provide the protection needed. The schedule includes a marquee OOC game at Alabama plus 9 conference games vs a deep Big 12. Weird that Sark has never won more than 9 games in his career (8 in reg season) but this Horns should be in the race for the conference championship. |
| 14. Tennessee – An incredible job by 2nd year HC Josh Heupel, leading the Vols to an 11-2 season, highest ranking in over 20 years and wins over Florida and Alabama. Tennessee loses stars QB Hendon Hooker and WRs Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman but new QB Joe MIlton performed well in filling in for the injured Hooker in the last 2 games, and his back up is super recruit Nico Iamaleava. The replacement WR’s showed out in the Orange Bowl win over Clemson. The defense last year was good against the run, but struggled at times against the pass. Injuries in the secondary were part of the issue, and greater health in ’23 should lead to greater success. Milton should put up big numbers in HC Josh Heupel’s offense, But Hooker and those WR’s will be hard to replace to duplicate last years success. |
| 15. Utah – All the hype in the Pac-12 this year is either on Coach Prime in Colorado or on USC and their chance at the playoffs. Meanwhile, Utah just chugs along as the two time defending Pac-12 champs! Utes are led QB Cameron Rising, a gritty phyiscal kid perfect for the HC Kyle Wittingham mentality, but is recovering from torn ACL. He is expected to be ready for the key opener vs Florida. The Utes feature a deep RB room and have 3 starters back on the o-line. Utah has 8 starters back on D, including the Pac 12’s Freshman of the year in each of the last 2 years – DL Junior Tufuna and LB Lander Barton. They add LB Levani Damuni from Stanford, the Cardinal leading tackler. The schedule is formidable, with the Utes going to Baylor after the opener vs Florida, and visit both USC and Washington (but get Oregon at home). In a deep Pac-12, Utah is in the race for the conference title with the other top 3 teams. |
| 16. K State – Defending Big 12 champs welcome back QB WIll Howard. RB Duece Vaughn is off to the NFL and is a big loss, but transfer Teshaun Ward from FSU and Keagan Johnson from Iowa are solid replacements. Howard and the backs will be protected by a very experienced o-line as all 5 starters return. Defense is a bit of a rebuild with only 5 starters back, but transfer DE Jevon Banks from Miss St will help fill holes on the line. The LB corp is the strength of the defense and may need to be as the inexperienced secondary gets its groove. The expanded Big 12 shakes up the schedule, with no OU and the big game with Texas in Austin. Wildcats had no problem with former rival Missouri last year but goes to Columbia and don’t overlook the home game with Troy. A solid, physical team in ’23, but too many big playmakers lost to repeat the conference championship of ’22. |
| 17. Texas A&M – Connor Weigman is expected to be the starting QB and threw for 900 yards 8 TDs and 0 INTs in 5 starts last season. He’ll operate behind and experienced oline where 4 starters are back. RB Devon Achane to the NFL Is a big loss, but Ags are high on incoming 5* true fr Reuben Owens. WR Evan Stewart had a good fr seasonand Ainias Smith is back after only playing 4 games last year due to injury. The defense had most of the starters back on the line and in the LB corp, but needs to improve on 100th ranking in total defense last year. schedule features OOC at Miami and draws Tenn and SC from the East. Overall, A&M was one of the least experienced teams in the nation going into last season, but are now one of the most experienced. That experience, plus the talent level, should lead to a rebound in ’23. |
| 18. Wisconsin – Badgers made one of the best offseason hires when they brought in HC Luke Fickell from Cincinnati, after Fickell led the Bearkats to the first G5 playoff bid. And these are not your father’s (or even older brother’s Badgers) as Fickell plans to open up the offense. He brought in SMU transfer QB Tanner Modecai , a 2 year starter for the Mustangs. Wisconsin didn’t have great WR’s on the roster so Fickell brought in several from the portal. The running game won’t go away though and that area is well under control with their top 2 backs. Badgers have a tricky OOC game at Washington State, but don’t play Michigan or Penn State and get Ohio State at home. These transitions usually have some bumps in the road but Fickell has been successful wherever he goes. |
| 19. Oregon State – HC (and former star QB) Jonathan Smith has rebuilt the Beavers into a very physical unit that few teams in the Pac 12 look forward to playing. His efforts led to the breakout ’22 season, their first 10 wins season since 2006, that included wins over rival Oregon and in a bowl vs and SEC team (Florida). Oregon State was able to accomplish this with a run oriented, smash mouth offense that did not include great QB play. The QB will be of much interest in ’23 as the Beavs signed a blue chipper at QB in Aidan Chiles; but the true fr is not expected to be the starter, that opportunity likely will go to DJ Uiagelelei, the transfer from Clemson. Expectations were through the roof, but his time at Clemson was mostly frustrating and he lost the starter job late last season. Maybe a change in scenery in a different offense will bring that blue chip talent back out. Its a bit of a rebuild on the defense as the top 3 players, the all conference picks, move on; but the d line will still be a strength. The schedule isn’t too bad with no USC and Washington, Utah and UCLA come to Corvalis. |
| 20. Iowa – If it wasn’t for stunning ineptitude by the President and other top leaders at Northwestern, Iowa’s offseason drama would the Big Ten West’s biggest story. Frustration with the anemic offense finally boiled over and the ultimatum came down – the team had to average at least 25 points per game or beleaguered OC Brian Ferentz (son of HC Kirk Ferentz) would be fired. In this day and age though, the transfer portal can heal all wounds. The Hawkeyes brought in Cade McNamara, the former Michigan QB that led the Wolverines to the Big Ten title in ’21. McNamara was ultimately benched at Michigan, but even ok QB play would be a big step for the offense that finished next to last in total yards and had 7 receiving TDs on the year. There are some weapons including RB Kaleb Johnson (last season’s leading rusher) and TE Luke Lachey, who caught 4 of those 7 receiving TDs. TE Ercik Ali, also from Michigan, was a nice add in the portal. The defense does lose some leaders with LB Jack Campbell and DL Lucas Von Ness off to the NFL. But DC Phil Parker has done an amazing job with the defense over the years, and a minor step back is still a very good D. If defense isn’t the calling card of the Hawkeyes, its special teams and both their punter and kicker return. The schedule improves with Michigan and Ohio State dropping off, and only Penn State as one of the East big 3 appearing. I think the Ferentz is on a mission to prove that the offense can be better and with the strong D and great special teams, Iowa is a top threat to win the West. |
| 21. TCU – A dream season in 2022 for the Horned Frogs, with a new coach and coming off a 5-7 season, TCU won blew out preseason Big 12 favorite Oklahoma, won 7 straight conference games by 10 pts or less, and not only made the playoffs, but upset Michigan in a thriller. Matching anywhere near that level of success will be a steep challenge, starting with the loss of QB Max Duggan. Duggan willed the team to win in several of those close games and was a dynamic leader. Chandler Morris was actually the starter at the beginning of the year, but was replaced by Duggan after an injury. The top RBs and WRs depart, but HC Sonny Dykes added a number of offensive players from the portal, including WRs Jojo Earl (Bama) and Jack Bech (LSU) and RB Trey Sanders (also Bama). The offense also gets a new OC as Garret Riley left for Clemson, Dykes brought in Kendall Briles from Arkansas. The rebuild on defense is more modest as they do lose the Jim Thorpe award winner, but 7 starters are back from a defense that held Texas to 10 pts in the huge win in Austin. OOC schedule does not include any top 30 teams, opening with Colorado and also has cross metroplex rival SMU. But conference schedule is challenging with road trips to K State, OU and Texas Tech. The loss of experience on the offense and the number of close wins suggests a significant drop off from last season, but the talent is there in a deep Big 12 for a solid season. |
| 22. Kentucky – HC Mark Stoops has been very successful at Kentucky, but a disappointing year in ’23 with poor offensive play, especially on the line. You might think losing a 2nd round draft pick at QB would mean a rebound is unlikely, but in the age of the transfer portal, anything can happen. Stoops brought in QB Devin Leary, who threw for over 3300 yards for the Pack in ’21, but got injured in the 5th game of the season last year. Stoops is still working the portal to bring in some guys to fortify the o-line, but the defense should be solid as usual. Wildcats do draw Bama this year from the West, but don’t have a decent OOC game until the annual rivalry game with Louisville to end the year. |
| 23. Oklahoma – a terribly disappointing debut for new HC Brent Venables return to Norman. QB Dillion Gabriel is back after throwing for over 3000 yards and 25 TDs in 12 games. Top RB Eric Gray is off to the NFL but two solid backs in Javantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk return. The defense was surprisingly bad under Clemson’s former DC, but with a top 10 signing class and more importantly, reinforcements from the transfer portal, the defense could make a leap forward in ’23. The d-line added Trace Ford (Ok St), Jacob Lacy (ND) Dajon Terry (tenn), and Rondell Brothroyd (14 sacks at Wake last 2 years). Sooners loss 5 one score games in 2022, that luck likely reverses in 2023. |
| 24. Louisville – Cardinals HC Scott Satterfield left for Cincy after an 8-5 season and Louisville brought ‘home’ Jeff Brohm; and Brohm brought with him his former QB at Purdue, Jack Plummer, who threw for over 3000 yards last year at Cal. They have 7 starters back from a defense that gave up only 19.3 ppg. Brohm also used the portal well to fortify the defense. UL does get Notre Dame and Kentucky in their OOC schedule, but skips FSU, Clemson and UNC in conference. |
| 25. Tulane – the biggest good news for the Green Wave coming off their AAC championship and stunning upset of USC in the Cotton Bowl, is that both HC WIllie Fritz and QB Michael Pratt returned after entertaining offers from other schools. Most of Pratts friends upfront return too, but not many of his offensive weapons. And the top 4 leading tacklers are gone off the defense as well. But with UCF, Houston, and Cincy all off to the Big 12, Tulane seems the best team in the AAC and is a big favorite to repeat as champs. Big OOC game when Ole Miss comes to New Orleans in the 2nd week of the season. |
| 26. Ole Miss – The Rebels were off to a great start in 2022, jumping out to 7-0 and #7 in the AP Poll, thanks in a part to a manageable schedule. Then the wheels came off as losses to LSU and Alabama (no shame there), were followed by losses to Arkansas and Miss State and culminating in a blowout loss to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. There are reasons for optimism in Oxford heading into 2023 though, starting with the return of QB Jaxson Dart, now in his 2nd year. HC Lane Kiffin added QB Spencer Sanders , the #2 all time passer at Oklahoma State to fortify the QB room. RB is set with Quinshon Judkins returning, first team all SEC as a Fr last year, with over 1500 yards rushing and 16 TDs. The top receivers are gone, but Kiffin brought in 2 from the portal, including La Tech’s Tre Harris, an All CUSA pick last year. The defense struggled in the late season slump, so DC Pete Golding from Alabama to shore up the Rebel D. Sr DE’s Jared Ivey and Cedric Johnson return, and LB Monty Montgomery from Louisville, will play a big role. The challenge is going to be the schedule, not only playing Bama and LSU every year, but now drawing UGA from the East this season. Rebels could be a very good team, but more than 8 wins will be hard to come by. |
| 27. North Carolina– The big question heading into last season for the Tar Heels, was how to replace all time career leader in passing, QB Sam Howell. The answer came in the first game when fr QB Drake Maye threw for 300 yards in 6 of his first 7 games and became the only Fr in FBS history to throw for 30 TDs in his first 9 games. The top two WRs are gone, but the entire RB room plus 4 o-line starters are back. Maye will be in the discussion for top pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The reason the Heels are down here in the rankings though is the defense. How’s this for some stats on the D – last in the ACC in scoring, total, sacks, passing efficiency. Most of their leading tacklers return but is that a good thing? And several players, especially in the secondary transferred out. Meanwhile, UNC doesn’t play FSU, but starts with South Carolina, App State, and Minnesota, then opens ACC play at Pitt. |
| 28. Maryland – There’s good news for the Terps heading into 2023… they come off their first 8 win season since 2010 and back to back bowl wins. Also, Taulia Tagavailoa, who has thrown for nearly 8000 yards and 51 TDs in his two years for the Terps. In a league full of bigger name programs, Tagavailoa was 2nd team all Big Ten at QB. Meanwhile, HC Mike Locksley has continued to recruit well and the overall talent level is as good as it’s been in years. The bad news though starts with Maryland in the Big Ten East and ends with having to rebuild both the offensive and defensive lines. But WR Jeshaun JOens leads a talented receiver room and RB Roman Hemby was 3rd among all FBS freshman with 1287 yards from scrimmage. I’m not expecting any wins vs the big 3 – Ohio St, Michigan or Penn State. But the OOC schedule of Towson, Charlotte and UVA should result in a 3-0 start, and neither Wisconsin or Iowa appear on the schedule. Looks like another 8 win season on tap for the Terps. |
| 29. UCLA – HC Chip Kelly did not bring instant success to the Bruins as many thought he might; but the last 2 seasons have shown why UCLA was excited to bring Kelly in. And last season was the best yet, a 9-3 record, wins over highly ranked Utah and Washington, lead by a 5th year QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While DTW departs, the fans in Westwood are very excited about incoming Fr Dnate Moore, the #3 rated QB in the nation in last year’s recruiting class. Moore is the highest rated QB to ever sign with UCLA. They lose top rusher Zack Carbonnet, but have some depth behind him and bring in the MAC’s leading rusher in Carson Steele from Ball State. The top 2 receives are also gone, but again reinforcements come through the transfer portal, including Cal’s leading WR J Michael Sturdivant. The defense wasn’t great and Kelly brought in D’Anton Lynn from the NFL’s Ravens to improve their play. UCLA will have experience up front and in the linebacking corp, so improvement is possible. The OOC schedule features 2 strong G5s programs in Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, and the conference is deep with good teams again in ’23, but the Bruins do skip Washington. It will be hard to replace DTR, but a top notch QB coming in offers a lot of excitement for the season. |
| 30. Boise State – significant improvement for HC Andy Avalos in year 2, as the Broncos improved to 10 wins and an appearance in the Mountain West Conference Champ game. Fr QB Taylen Green took over for the injured Hank Bachmeier and never looked back, throwing for over 2000 yards, rushing for nearly 700 in the last 10 games of the season, earning himself Fr of the year in the MW. Green returns as does both top Rbs, George Holani (1157 yds) and Ashton Jeanty (821nyds) to form a dynamic duo. The top 4 leading receivers are back too. The Broncos have a bigger rebuilding job on the defensive side of the ball, but reinforcements to the line comes through the transfer portal, including TYler Wegis from Utah and Kivon Wright from BC. The talent is there for a big season and finish in the rankings… if it weren’t for the schedule. The blue turf boys open at Washington, then host UCF, and have road games at San Diego State, Memphis, Fresno. This should be a good team, but will hard to top last year’s 9-3 regular season record. |
| 31. Pitt – It’s been a very successful 2 years for the Panthers, with 20 wins, an ACC championship, and a Heisman finalist. HC Pat Narduzzi has positioned the program for another successful year if the transfer QB works out better than last year. After ’21 QB Kenny Pickett went in the first round of the NFL draft, Narduzzi brought in transfer QB Kedon Slovis from USC; but the passing numbers fell off and Pitt ended up running the ball more. This year, longtime BC starting QB Phil Jurkovec transfers to Pitt, but the key may be Narduzzi also brought in OC Frank Cignetti , who was the OC when Jurkovec had his best year. The Panthers will need an improved passing attack, as they’ll miss RB Izzy Abanikanda, who led the nation in rushing TDs. THey bring in RB Derrick Davis from LSU to bolster the RB room. Narduzzi was known for his defenses at Michigan State, and he and DC Randy Bates have continued that success in Pittsburgh. The Panthers have finished in the top 5 in the nation in sacks all 4 years, including last year when two All Americans were drafted the previous year. That year to year consistency is key as the rebuild this year is a little bigger than most with 4 starting d lineman gone and 2 all conference DBs. Even with these departures, Pitt has a lot of depth in both the line and the backfield, and can fill in with quality replacements. The schedule features a couple of big OOC rivalry games up front, vs Cincy and at WVU, and also includes a trip to Notre Dame. The questions on defense are why I have the Panthers just outside the Top 25, but Narduzzi could easily outdo expectations. |
| 32. Toledo – 2022 was a successful season for the Rockets, winning the MAC championship game and their bowl over LIberty, but they’re looking for more in ’23. The offense The offense returns most of their weapons, including a very experienced QB in JDequan Finn, their entiere RB room (their 6! leading rushers) and their top 2 WRs. The Rockets do have some rebuilding on their D line but their LB corp and secondary are among the best in the MAC. The schedule is less challenging with a OOC game at Illinois vs at Ohio State, and a home game vs San Jose State vs at San Diego State. Toledo has a very good chance at a double digit win season this year. |
| 33. Texas Tech – HC Joey McGuire’s debut was a success, beating Ole Miss in the bowl to finish with 4 straight wins and an 8-5 first year campaign. QB Tyler Slough returns, although he’ll be pushed by Behren Morton. Edge Tyree Wilson picked number 7 in the NFL draft is a big loss, but the defensive starters will feature 8 seniors. Tough schedule in ’23 with no team in the Big 12 an easy out and the OOC schedule features a monster home game vs Oregon. |
| 34. UTSA – HC Jeff Traylor has done an amazing job with Roadrunners, with back to back 11+ win seasons. UTSA has been rewarded for its success by moving up to the American Athletic Conference. The Roadrunners are lead by 7 year Sr Frank Harris, who threw for over 4000 yards, with a 69.6% completion % and a 32/9 TD/INT ratio. The o-line returns 3 starters, but was bagned up last season, and back-ups got some experience. The d-line is a strength of the team , and features transfers from LSU and NC State. UTSa won Conference USA last year, but it will be a rougher go in the American, even as several of the top AAC teams left. The OOC features the opener at Houston and a visit to Tennessee, and the Roadrunners to Tulane in conference. As long as Harris is healthy, this team is capable of competing for the conference championship even in a tougher league. |
| 35. South Alabama – Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, LSU, Texas… and South Alabama each have 2 players on the Maxwell Award Watch List, the Maxwell Award given to the “Collegiate football player of the year”. USA Sr QB Carter Bradley set the school record for passing yards with 3343 yards and a 64% completion rate. RB LaDamian Webb, a transfer from FSU, also broke a school record, this for rushing yards in a season with 1063 yards, even though he missed 2 games with injury. Troy was the class of the Sun Belt last season, going 12-2 including an upset of UTSA in the bowl game, but USA was also 7-1 in conference just like Troy, and finished 10-2 in the regular season, the only losses by 4 to Troy and 1 to UCLA. The schedule is tough with SBC games at Troy, at James Madison and home vs Marshall, and get OOC at Tulane and at Ok State. Their 18 starters back from last years 10 win squad, give them the edge to win the Sun Belt. |
2019 Preview – Predicted Top 35
1 Georgia The Dawgs have come so close to winning the national title in the past 2 years but one thing has stood in their way – Alabama. Georgia should be right there again, with a 3 year and now unquestioned starter at QB in Jake Fromm, who has a top RB in D/Andre Swift he can hand the ball too. Both will be operating behind one of the best o-lines in the nation. The defense only returns 6 starters, but most their 3 top tacklers return. Throw in the overall talent that HC Kirby Smart has brought into Athens and a senior K (and cult hero) in Rodrigo Blankenship, and UGA has a real chance to break through in 2019.
2 Alabama The TIde ended the 2018 season in both expected and unexpected ways – playing in the National Championship Game but losing by 20 to Clemson. Bama returns electric QB Tua Tagovailoa and their top 3 WRs from an offense that averaged over 40 ppg for the first time in modern history. Alabama always loses a number of players to the NFL draft and this year is no exception, with just 6 starters back on defense. But 6 starters is the most in recent years. The schedule is not as difficult as one would think, with OOC games vs Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Western Carolina and no regular season games against the East’s two ranked teams, Georgia and Florida. Tide will be hungry after last year’s title game flop and are as usual, one of the top contenders for the national championship.
3 Clemson When we last saw Clemson they were destroying Alabama in the national title game. Both QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne return and are each Heisman Trophy candidates,. The Tigers were #4 in the nation last year in scoring offense at 44 ppg, but could top that number in 2019. The defense loses everyone up front from a unit that held opponents to 13 ppg and overall, only returns 4 starters. The overall level of talent is so high though, the potentially less dominant defense will likely not matter in a regular season, where Clemson will be a big favorite in every game. The Tigers are the team most likely to make the playoffs, but I think the losses on defense will matter in the playoffs (although not until then).
4 Michigan The offense is loaded with QB Shea Patterson in his 2nd year, 4 starters on the o-line and experienced WRs. New OC Josh Gattis, previously at Alabama, will introduce a more up-tempo style so this may be one of the best offenses of HC Jim Harbaugh’s tenure. The defense has some issues though following a ghastly end to the season (surrendering 103 points in the final 2 games) and only returning 5 starters. Harbaugh is 2-7 vs Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame but gets all 3 at home this year (and ‘that team down south’ is rebuilding their coaching staff)… can the Wolverines take advantage?
5 Oklahoma Ho Hum, another season, another record setting QB wins the Heisman (Kyler Murray). The Sooners got the most coveted transfer in QB Jalen Hurts – can HC Lincoln Riley get another high level performance? It will be harder this year with the top o-line in the nation (JOe Moore Award) only returning one starter. The defense took a step back in 2018, allowing 46, 47, 40 and 58 points in a 4 game stretch. New DC Alex Grinch has a great reputation and 8 starters back, so some improvement is expected. Can HC Riley, the QB whisperer get as much out of Hurts as his previous 2 QBs? That will make the difference between a playoff run or simply a Top 10 finish.
6 LSU Not much was expected of the TIgers last season, but transfer QB Joe Burrow was solid and with the typically good defense, LSU ended with 10 wins and a #6 ranking. Burrow in his 2nd year as a starter and with the move to a more RPO style offense, should put up better numbers; and it doesn’t hurt that his top target WR Justin Jefferson returns. The defense has to replace a few key starters that are now in the NFL, like shutdown CB Greedy Williams, but 8 starters back is a lot for this program that cranks out NFL defenders. LSU has a tough OOC game, at Texas in week 2, and is also on the road vs Alabama, but this is a team that has a shot at 11 wins for the first time since ’11 and a spot in the playoffs.
7 Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is gone but in steps former co-OC Ryan Day, a highly regarded assistant who also coached under Chip Kelly. Day will get his opportunity right out of the gate to prove his offensive prowess, as record setting QB Dwayne Haskins was a first round NFL draft pick, and only 4 starters are back on the offense overall. Day will have a transfer in former 5* QB Justin Fields to build around, but the reason Fields is in Columbus and not Athens is that he wasn’t able to beat out Jake Fromm. The defense had a down year in ’18 but with 10 starters back should improve. The schedule is manageable with Cincy as the toughest OOC game and Mich St, Wisc and Penn State all come to Columbus. As per usual, the division will likely come down to the match up in the Big House vs Michigan to end the season.
8 Notre Dame Irish made the playoffs last year behind a dynamic QB in Ian Book and a solid defense. Book is back for ’19 and may be even better with the additional experience but his top RB and WR have moved on. The defense loses several key playmakers and both K and P. The schedule gets more difficult with trips to Stanford, Michigan and UGA. Irish still could win double digit games again this season, but the personnel losses suggest a step back from last year’s playoff appearance.
9 Florida HC Dan Mullen did an amazing job with the Gators in ’18, a stunning 6 victory improvement from the previous season. Maybe even more amazing, he somehow coaxed good QB play out of Felipe Franks. Franks is back and could be better in the 2nd year in the system, but Gators are completely rebuilding their o-line. The defense loses a few key playmakers but does return 7 starters to a side of the ball that had a lot of talent and finished #20 in the nation in scoring defense last season. UF was +12 in turnovers last season, #7 in the nation, but that’s hard to replicate year after year. Mullen has dramatically improved the program in just one year, but Georgia will be hard to catch in the division. Still another double digit win season appears likely.
10 Utah Kyle Whittingham has been with Utah for 15 years and compiled a 120-61 record, but last season was their first as a division winner in a Power 5 conference, losing to Washington in the Pac 12 Championship game. Both their starting QB Tyler Huntley and their star RB Zack Moss missed the end of the season due to injuries, but both are back for 2019. And QB Jason Shelly, who filled in during Huntley’s absence, is also back to give added depth. The Utes have 7 starters back from a defense that surrendered only 19 ppg in 2018. The schedule is a little kinder as both Oregon and Stanford from the North Division are skipped this year. No team from the Pac 12 South finished in the rankings last season, so this is the Utes chance to win the division again, and will be right there with the powers from the North in the conference championship race.
11 Texas 2018 was the breakthrough year Horn’s fans had been looking for since Mack retired, with a 10 win season wrapped up by an impressive upset win over #6 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Sam Ehlinger is the top returning QB in the BIg 12, but he will operate behind a rebuilding o-line. Although the most production WR and RB are gone, there is a lot of talent (and production) from both groups ready to step up this season. The defense played well in the Sugar Bowl but struggled at times during the regular season, and only returns 3 starters for 2019. The overall talent continues to improve in Austin, but the Horns return the fewest production of any power 5 team. The schedule features a monster early season showdown vs LSU, but at least its in Austin and HC Tom Herman gets his teams up for the big games. Herman definitely has the program on the rise but there may be a minor setback this season.
12 Oregon Ducks got a big boost when QB Justin Hebert decided to forgo the NFL and stay at Oregon and he is one of a whopping 10 returning starters on offense. D wasn’t great in ’18, but improved significantly from ’17 and HC Mario Cristobal signed a top 10 class that can help contribute to the already upward trajectory. The biggest challenge may be the schedule – Ducks are hard to beat at Autzen Stadium but starting with the opener vs Auburn in Dallas, most of the tough games are away from home, including trips to Washington, Stanford, USC and Arizona St.
13 Nebraska The Huskers started the Scott Frost era 0-6 but weren’t as bad a team as the record would suggest. The 4-2 finish confirmed that program was on the right track under their former iconic player. The offense avg 36 pts per game during the 2nd half of the season, and now SO QB Adrian Martinez, should be even better in 2019. The D wasn’t great but did improve over 2017 and another year in the scheme should help. The schedule is favorable with Iowa, NW and Wisky at home and no Michigan, Michigan State or Penn State. Frost did such an amazing job in turning around UCF in 2 seasons (0-12 to 12-0) that another huge jump in record is possible here too.
14 Miami Miami’s 2018 could not have gone much different (or much worse) compared to the expectations. A pre-season #8 ranking was blown up in the opener vs LSU, then a 7-5 finish was capped by a blowout loss to Wisconsin in a lower tier bowl. And HC Mark Richt retired at the end of the season. The good news, is the “Canes moved quickly and got their man to replace Richt, former DC Manny Diaz. No coach took more advantage of the transfer portal than Diaz. The top prize was former Ohio State QB Tate Martel. Diaz’s defense last year was physical and lead the nation in tackles for loss. The offense on the other hand was dreadful, and QB play was either inconsistent or dreadful. The defense loses most of the secondary, but otherwise, a lot of starters return to make a formidable force up front. It all comes down to the QB play and new OC Dan Enos, former Alabama QC coach. If Miami could just get decent QB play to go with that offense, the coastal division is ripe for the taking.
15 Washington Washington HC Chris Petersen has done a great job as the Huskies won 10 games for the 3rd year in a row. A 4th will be challenging after losing QB jake Browning and the entire D line (only 2 defensive starters back). The good news is the transfer QB Jacob Eason brings talent and experience to the most important position, and may ultimately be an upgrade over Browning. More good news is the schedule – in the unbalanced Pac-12 with 4/5 or 5/4 road/home games, this season SC, Oregon, Utah and Washington State all come to Seattle.
16 Texas A&M A&M brings back QB Kellen Mond who threw for over 3400 yards in ’18 and has 3 o-line starters back. TE Sternberger now in the NFL is a loss, but the next best receivers all return. DC Mike Elko cut A&Ms ppg allowed from 30.7 to 25.3 but he’ll have some work to do this season with only 4 starters back. Jimbo has recruited at an elite level so the talent across the board is rising but the challenge this year is a brutal schedule. Aggies face LSU, Georgia and Clemson all on the road in addition to Alabama at home. The program overall is trending up but it probably won’t show up in the record this year.
17 UCF 2019 looks to be an interesting year for the Knights as star QB McKenzie Milton still out from his gruesome injury, the starter will likely come from former backup Daniel Mack Jr or Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush from ND. Mack played well filling in for Milton at the end of last season, but broke his ankle in practice. The defense only returns 5 starters and just 2 of the top 6 tacklers. Memphi and Cincinnati will be tough in the ACC and UCF has an interesting OCC game with Stanford in Orlando. There’s a reason Wimbush isn’t the starter at ND anymore, so think there will be some drop off at QB play and the defense has questions. But this is still the best program in the AAC and expect another double digit win season and run at the Group of 5 NY6 bowl bid.
18 Washington State HC Mike Leach , after 3 years of solid 8 or 9 sin seasons, had the big break through last year, with 11 wins including a victorious bowl game. Leach appears to have found another budding star at QB in Gabe Guburd, a graduate transfer from FCS power Eastern Washington. Four o-linemen return as well so the offense should continue rolling. There are some losses on D, but the defense overall has improved significantly from earlier in Leach’s tenure, so a slight step back wouldn’t be make or break. The bigger challenge is probably the schedule, which features games vs Houston, Utah, Oregon and Washington all on the road.
19 Missouri HC Barry Odom landed an impact transfer in Clemson’s Kelly Bryant to replace Drew Lock. The Tigers return a deep backfield and three starters in the trenches. Guard Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms is among the SEC’s top returning linemen and anchors a unit that allowed only 13 sacks in 2018. Defense improved dramatically in 2018, after allowing 31.8 points a game in ’17, the Tigers held teams to 25.5 in ’18. The schedule is also manageable. Missouri plays Florida, Tennessee and South Carolina at home, while catching Ole Miss and Arkansas in crossover play. It’s hard to say how the team will react to the bowl ban (as of this writing), but with Bryant’s experience, the Tigers are a dark horse in the SEC East.
20 Auburn Under HC Gus Malzahn, AU has been hard team to forecast – a 12 win team in his first season, mostly 7-8 win seasons, then a 10 win campaign that ended with 2 losses year before last. The strength of this years squad should be on the d-line, fortified by both Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson who would have been high draft picks but returned to school. QB is a question mark after last season with Sr QB Jarrett Stidham was underwhelming, the Tigers will have a new signal caller in 2019. Whomever it turns out to be, should be a better dual threat than Stidham which fits Malzahn’s offense better and oddly enough it seems like he has more success will first year starters. The schedule features an interesting opener vs Oregon in Dallas, but the Tigers get Bama and UGA at home. Could this team repeat the magic of 2017 and make the SECCG? With Malzahn you never know but the pick here is enough talent for a good but not great season.
21 Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is the longest tenured coach in the FBS, but in this decade (2010-2018), last season was only the 2nd 9 or more wins in the 9 year stretch. The Hawkeyes QB Nate Stanley returns from the squad that upset Miss State in the bowl game but for the first time in history for any program, had two TE’s drafted in the first round. Still a lot of talent returns on offense. Defense is the bigger rebuild with only 4 starters returning and losing their entire front 4. Schedule wise, the in-state rival Iowa State will have about as talented a team as they ever do, and the Hawkeyes draw Michigan and Penn State from the East division. This Big Ten West is hard one to rank, but looks like Iowa is one of several teams that will be in the race for the division title.
22 Army What a season for Army in 2018! They won the Commander in Chief trophy for the second straight year, set the school record for wins with 11 and finished in the AP rankings for the first time since ’96! QB Kelvin Hopkins returns with 6 other starters on offense, potentially improving on their 33 ppg output in ’18. The defense was great last season, but looks to take a step back with only 4 starters back. Army put a very big scare into Oklahoma last year, losing in OT. Can the Knights pull off the monumental upset against Michigan in the Big House this year? Probably not, but Army is clearly the class of the service academies at this time and another double digit win season and final ranking is within sight.
23 Virginia Two QBs in FBS ran for over 800 yards and threw for over 2500 – Heisman winner Kyler Murray from Oklahoma and Bryce Perkins from Virginia. HC Bronco Mendenhall has taken the Cavaliers from a 2 win team his first season to an 8 win squad with a both win last year. Perkins returns this year but his two top playmakers, their leading RB and WR, will need to be replaced. The defense improved by more than a full TD in points allowed from ’17, and with 8 starters back should be very good again. UVA has a tough OOC game vs Notre Dame, but otherwise does not face any other ranked teams in the Coaches preseason poll. Hoo’s had a very frustrating loss to rival Va Tech to end last year, this is their chance to finally end the very long losing streak in the series.
24 Penn State The Nittany Lions will be breaking in a new QB after losing Trace McSorely to the NFL after he became the program’s all time leader in wins (from a QB). The story took a weird turn when expected incumbent Tommy Stevens transferred during the off-season. But HC James Franklin has recruited well and although it’s young, there is talent. Meanwhile the defense has 5 of the top 6 tacklers back, and should be good enough to keep the Lions winning, as the likely first ranked opponent isn’t until week 6. The OOC schedule is manageable with rival Pitt (7-7 in ’18) the toughest of the 3. The challenge remains the division foes of Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State which swept Penn State last year.
25 Iowa State HC Matt Campbell has done a phenomenal job with the Cyclones, taking them from 3-9 his first year to 8-4 in the regular season, a 5 game conference winning streak and back to back bowls. 8 starters are back on a defense that was one of the Big 12’s best, giving up less than 23 ppg in 2018. QB Brock Purdy, which set a number of school records in his Fr year, will operate behind a very experienced o-line. Prudy’s improvement in his 2nd year as a starter should help overcome the loss of star RB David Montgomery and their big playmaker at WR Hakeem Butler. Iowa State has only had 3 straight seasons of at least 8 wins once in their history, they have an excellent chance for this to be their second.
26 Cincinnati The Bearcats enjoyed a huge breakthrough in HC Luke Fickell’s second season, going from a 4-8 season in ’17 to last years 11-2 record and #24 ranking. This year 7 starters return on offense, including dual threat QB Desmond Ridder, the 2018 AAC rookie of the year, plus their top 3 RBs. The defense improved dramatically from ’17 and with 7 returning starters should continue the upward trajectory. Cincy has two games circled on the calendar – the OOC game at Ohio State and the home game with UCF. The Bearcats went to Orlando last year ranked in the Top 20 and were blown out.. they are looking for revenge and a chance to topple UCF for the AAC crown.
27 Baylor HC Matt Rhule has taken the Bears from 1-11 to 7-6 with an upset win over Vandy in Texas Bowl. Baylor returns an experienced QB in Charlie Brewer and a good WR in Denzel Mims and the o-line is better. The defense was not good in 2018, but did improve and with 8 starters back, should be the best unit Rhule has had since he’s been in Waco. The OOC schedule features Stephen F Austin, Rice and UTSA so the record will depend upon the success in conference play. Baylor won’t threaten OU or Texas to win the Big 12, but should now be competitive with the middle of the conference.
28 Syracuse A stunning 2018 for the Orangemen, with a 10 win season and a final Top 20 ranking. QB Eric Dungey was big key to their success, as he not only threw for almost 2900 yards but he was the team’s leading rusher (not counting sacks). The challenge for HC Dino Babers is that Dungey is gone, along with 3 starters on the o-line. The defense did improve although at 64th in scoring, it was the offense most responsible for the wins. The schedule is not too tough with Clemson coming to the Carrier Dome (the Cuse beat the TIgers last time there) and Pitt and Duke in crossover games. The OCC schedule is not challenging and consists of Maryland, West Michigan, Holy Cross, and Liberty. While Babers has done a great job building this program, I don’t think they can replace such a dynamic QB without a drop off. Still, another 8 win season and a bowl is very much in reach.
29 Michigan State The Spartans were a hard team to watch last year, with an offense so dreadful that they lost twice while giving up 9 points or less. The good news is that part or most or this was due to a large number of injuries and better health in ’19 could easily lead to dramatic improvement. Meanwhile the defense was excellent, allowing only 17 ppg even with the inept offense. with 8 starters back, the defense should be stout again. The schedule does not feature a ranked OOC opponent but does include trips to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State. If HC Mark Dantonio could just get a pretty good offense to pair with this great defense, Sparty could surprise big in 2019.
30 Boise State For Boise’s standards, 2018 was not a great season, as the Broncos did not win the conference (lost in the Mountain West conference championship game) and was blown out in their one game vs a Power 5 program (21-44 at Oklahoma State). Boise did finish with double digit wins and a Top 25 ranking though. To do so again in 2019 will require new stars to emerge on offense – the 4 year starter at QB (Brett Rypien), the leading rusher and top two WRs all depart. The good news however, is a solid and experienced offensive line will help with the transition. The Broncos finished #30 in scoring defense and with 8 starters back, could improve on that number. The Mountain West does not look quite as strong as last season, Boise has a good opportunity to win the league in 2019.
31 Wisconsin Big things were expected of the Badgers last season, evident by the #4 preseason ranking. But the 3rd game of the year was a shocking loss at home to 22 pt underdog BYU, and the season went down the drain from there. The offense with a lot of starters back got worse and the defense surrendered 9 ppg more. Now the QB has left (Alex Hornibrook transferred to FSU) and the o-line is rebuilding with only 1 returning starter. The one piece of good news on offense is their workhorse RB Jonathan Taylor returns after 2200 yards on the ground in ’18. The defense does return 6 starters and with better health can get back to the standards of recent years. The schedule is tough, as Wisky draws Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the other division and goes to Nebraska, the favorite in the West. This team won 10, 11, and 13 games the past 3 years, so a big rebound would seem likely, but questions remain on offense and a much more difficult conference schedule may limit the turn around.
32 FSU The first year of new HC Willie Taggart was a disaster, with FSU ending the season 5-7, the programs first losing year since 1976! Previous HC Jimbo Fisher had left the program in a much worse state than realized, and Taggart made a number of mistakes with his coaching staff and how he prepared players for game conditions. Year 2 is a restart, with new OC Kendall Briles who was at Houston last year and FAU the year before. Briles and his new OL coach will have a tremendous challenge to work around a poor o-line although both have been very successful in their recent stops. On defense, last season was expected to be a rebuilding year, but the inept offense and terrible return teams meant FSU’s opponents had the best starting field position in FBS. With more experience and 8 starters back, the defense should improve on ’18’s numbers. The schedule features 2 trickly early games, opening with Boise State in Jacksonville, followed 2 weeks later by a trip to Virginia. Games at Clemson and Florida look unwinnable, but improvements on both sides of the ball should lead to a modest improvement in overall record and return to a bowl.
33 USC USC had double digits win season in HC Clay Heston’s first 2 seasons, but lost their last 3 games in 2018 to end the year with a losing record for the first time since 2000. There is hope in Troy though as QB JT Daniels was a rare starter as a true freshman, and he wasn’t bad; with the hiring of “Air Raid” guru Graham Harrell as OC, the offense could make a big jump this year. The defense struggled last season, but a lot of that was due to injuries. Even with only 5 starters back, a more healthy unit should be improved. The road ahead is challenging with Washington, Oregon and Stanford all on the schedule, with no gimmes in the OOC – Fresno, BYU and Notre Dame. Helton is on the hot seat, but this program still has tons of talent, so a rebound is very possible.
34 Virginia Tech The only aspect of Virginia Tech’s 2018 season that was more shocking than finishing with a losing record, was seeing a Bud Foster defense give up 49 points at home to ODU in route to a 31 ppg average on defense. The good news is a lot of youth and injuries lead to the poor performance on D last season, this is a much more experienced group for 2019 so look for significant improvement. Meanwhile the offense had its ups and downs last season, having to switch QBs to transfer Ryan Willis in mid season. Willis returns for this year and with 4 of his top 5 WR’s back, the passing offense should be better. The schedule is manageable and in this division, VA Tech is one of the teams that will contend for the opportunity to lose to Clemson in the ACCCG.
35 Ohio HC Frank Solich is the oldest coach in FBS at 74 and looks to lead Ohio to their first MAC title since 1968. The lofty goals rest on the arm of QB Nathan Rourke, leading the Bobcats to their highest scoring average in their history last season. Although their is turnover on the o-line, having the best QB in the conference should be enough for another good year offensively. Solich is known for his solid defenses and after a rocky start last year, the Bobcats D was solid. They ended the season with a shutout, 27-0 win over SDSU in the Frisco Bowl,. The schedule features one game vs a power 5 team, on the road against Pitt; but the 45-31 loss to UVA and 34-30 loss to Cincy last year, suggests the Bobcats will be competitive with Pitt.