| 1 | Georgia – the Bulldogs were rolling towards defending their national championship, but the 3 pt loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game was to the wrong team at the wrong time, and UGA missed the playoffs. But with the most talented roster and coach combo in college football (with Nick Saban’s surprising retirement), again the national title race is going to start with the Bulldogs. QB Carson Beck took over for Stetson Bennett and after rough patches early, the offense was humming again. TE Brock Bowers is a big loss, but on offense UGA brought in RB Travis Etienne and receivers London Humphreys (Vanderbilt), and Colbie Young (Miami) to fill in. The defense lost 4 starters to the NFL, but that’s the least in the past 4 years. Starting Edge Chaz Chambliss returns along with two very experienced linemen in Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson and former 5* Mykel Williams is already in the conversation for one of the top picks in the 2025 NFL draft. The schedule is tougher with games at Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas, but unlike last year, one hiccup won’t keep the Dawgs out of the playoffs. |
| 2 | Ohio State – “suffered” though perhaps the most disappointing 11-2 season a team has ever had, losing again to rival Michigan, flopping in a bowl loss, then watching the Wolverines win the national title. However, Ryan Day has not been sitting back just watching since. The Buckeyes went all in on the portal, bringing in QB Will Howard from K State, and in a big surprise, also added Ole Miss star RB Quinshon Judkins. Day not only brought in star players but brought in a star coach, when Chip Kelly stunned the college football world, leaving his job as HC of UCLA to become the Ohio State OC. And in today’s world, it’s not only who you bring in but who you keep – and a number of key players, especially on defense returned. This group includes defensive ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer and cornerback Denzel Burke.In the new Big Ten, Ohio State does get one of the tougher draws – Michigan, Penn State, Iowa and Oregon. But with Michigan rebuilding, this is the Buckeyes best shot at the Big Ten and even national title in many years. |
| 3 | Oregon – two losses to Washington kept the Ducks out of the playoffs, but the biggest win was HC Dan Lanning turning down the Bama job to remain in Eugene. Oregon loses QB Bo Nix, but Lanning was very aggressive in the portal, and former Oklahoma starter at QB Dillion Gabriel may be an ‘easy button’ replacement. Also arriving are S Kobe Savage (Kansas State) and CB Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) to fill in holes in the secondary. Ducks also had the 4th rated recruiting class to add to their talent. Oregon does draw Ohio State and Michigan from the BIg Ten’s old guard, but not Penn State or Iowa. Ducks are just behind Ohio State as favorites in the Big Ten. |
| 4 | Alabama -After the loss to Michigan in the playoffs, it appeared we were headed for another season where the Tide was in the top group of favorites for the 2024 national tite. Then the seismic news that not only rocked T-Town, but all of college football when the GOAT himself, HC Nick Saban announced his retirement. Alabama moved quickly to being in former Washington HC Kalen DeBoer, who’s been extremely successful wherever he’s been (including taking the Huskies to the championship game last year). Bama lost a number of elite recruits in the portal right away, but DeBoer has quickly righted the ship – including OT Kadyn Proctor cup off coffee (plate of corn?) with Iowa before returning to Tuscaloosa. It didn’t help that OC Ryan Grubb left to join the Seahawks shortly after DeBoer was hired. But this is still arguably the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the nation and QB Jalen Milroe returns with much more experience than he started 2023 with. Tide does face Georgia in the regular season for a change (in Tuscaloosa), but gets OU not Texas and does not face long time West rival Ole MIss. Definitely a transition year, but DeBoer has excelled in each stop in his career. |
| 5 | Mississippi – After leading the Rebels to their first 11 win season in history, HC Lane Kiffin has once again gone hard in the portal to keep the mojo going. QB Jaxson Dart returns to lead the offense that scored over 35 points a game last season, but the big offseason work was done on defense. Kiffin brought in sought after DT Walter Nolen from Texas A&M, defensive end Princely Umanmielen from Florida, and linebacker Chris Paul Jr. from Arkansas. The schedule isn’t too bad for an SEC one as the Rebels skip Alabama and Texas, and get the biggest games, UGA and Oklahoma at home and don’t play a ranked OOC opponent. Ole Miss has a great chance at another 11 win season, and under this year’s format, get the Rebels into the playoffs. |
| 6 | Penn State – the expanded 12 team playoff will benefit teams like the Nittany Lions the most, a typically good but not great team that wins a lot of games but not against the elite programs so will not finish in the top 4. PSU brings back QB Drew Allar, but the Lion offense struggled against the better defenses in 2023. HC James Franklin brought in Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to get the offense, and passing game in particular to the next level. With RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both returning, the run game is in good hands. DC Manny Diaz left to become HC at Duke, so Franklin brought in former Indiana HC Tom Allen. PSUs defense should be solid again. The schedule is interesting, with no Michigan or Iowa from the old guard, and no game against the best of the new additions, Oregon. Penn State’s offense needs to improve but the schedule is manageable enough for a top 3 finish in the Big 10 and a playoff berth. |
| 7 | Notre Dame – Irish took heralded former Wake QB Sam Hartman from the portal last year, and ended 2023 with a solid 10-3 record. HC Marcus Freeman enters his 3rd year and will again rely on a highly regarded former ACC QB in 2024. This time it’s Riley Leonard from Duke, expected to be fully recovered from his ankle injury last season. Freeman also brought in OC Mike Denbrock, who orchestrated the incredible LSU offense last season. Losing T Joe Alt will be hard to replace, but that’s what the transfer portal is for. Irish should be solid on defense again. The schedule is very manageable with the most difficult games the road opener at Texas A&M, and home games vs FSU and Louisville. If Leonard is as good as he was early in the year with Duke, Irish can not only make the new 12 team playoff, but can make a run when they get there. |
| 8 | Texas – HC Steve Sarkisian had his breakthrough year, winning the Big 12 and making the playoff. Now Texas heads into their inaugural season in the SEC with one of the top teams in the conference. It starts with the return of QB Quinn Ewers. WR Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are big losses but Sark brought in the #1 receiver off of 3 different P5 teams: Isaiah Bond (Alabama) and Matthew Golden (Houston) and Silas Bolden (Oregon State). RB CJ Baxter season ending injury during fall practice is a huge blow, but Jaydon Blue will now have to step up as the featured back. So Anthony Hill Jr. is a budding star on defense and bringing in talent like Edge Collin Simmons former Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba will continue the defense’s improvement. The schedule features a monster OOC at Michigan (although Wolverines in a serious rebuild w/o their HC or QB, and get OU and Georgia back to back. Horn’s do miss Ole Miss and Alabama, the other top teams in the conference. Sark’s program has improved in each year, culminating in last season’s elite team. But that brings the number of elite teams under Sark to 1. The win over Alabama last year was great (and got the Horns into the playoffs), but facing the SEC talent week-in and week-out is going to be a new ball game. |
| 9 | Utah – the story for the Utes in 2023 was injuries as long time HC Kyle Whittingham held the team together with bandages and medical tape. It was not sustainable though as Utah lost 4 of the last 6. But QB Cam Rising is expected to be back and fully healthy in ’24 and the entire o-line returns. TE Brant Kuithe and RB Micah Bernard are also coming back after suffering knee injuries in 2023. The newly configured Big 12 looks wide open in 2024, the bad luck of all the injuries last season may pay dividends this year. The Utes don’t play a ranked OOC opponent, play at Oklahoma State and get Arizona at home (in back to back weeks in Sept). Utah does not play either Kansas of K-State, two of the other top contenders in the Big 12. |
| 10 | Clemson – Clemson was the co-favorite with FSU headed into the ’23 season, with much heralded new OC Garrett Riley mentoring former blue chip recruit QB Cade Klubnik to bring the Tigers offense close to the Lawrence-Watson days. But a shocking blowout loss to Duke in the opener and agonizing OT loss to FSU, left the Tigers with 2 conference losses and out of the race before September ended. But 5 straight wins to end the season, including an upset of Top 20 Notre Dame has fans optimistic that in the 2nd year of working with Klubnik, Riley can get a more productive offense. Unusually mediocre play by the o-line was also a big factor in the Tiger’s offensive struggles last year, but the hire of former Ole Miss HC and o-line guru Matt Luke should lead to significant improvement. The defense carried the team last season, finishing in the top ten in both total defense and yards per play allowed, and looks to be strong again in ’24, as 4 true Fr on defense, play extensively and earned high grades from PFF – DL Peter Woods, S Khalil Barnes, DB Avieon Terrell and EDGE T.J. Parker. The defense overall though is not experienced although it is very talented. The schedule starts with a monster match-up Georgia (a likely loss) and features home games vs NC State and Louisville with a big conference showdown at FSU in early October. The Tigers do not play Miami. FSU finally wrestled away the conference championship from Clemson last season, but is significantly rebuilding. Clemson has the opportunity to take back the ACC crown and call last season a one off; or relinquish their spot in the ACC hierarchy. |
| 11 | Tennessee – It’s Nico time in Knoxville, and by that I mean former 5* uber QB recruit Nico Lamaleava, takes over the offense after leading the Vols to a win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. Nico will have plenty of top targets to throw to including Squirrel White, Bru McCoy (back healthy) and Tulane’s leading receiver in 2023, Chris Brazzell II. The offense may get the pub at Tennessee, but the D isn’t too shabby, finishing #19 in the country in yards per play allowed and had 36 sacks on the season, a school record. DE Tyler Baron left thru the portal, but all SEC Edge James Pearce returns (projected top 10 pick in the NFL draft, 16.5 TFL and 12 sacks in his 1st two seasons) and the top 5 DTs all return. The big rebuild is in the secondary where all starters are gone. Transfers will make up the bulk of the starters, including Jermond McCoy coming off a solid fr season at Oregon State. Even with the new look SEC in 24, the Vols still get both Georgia (away) and Bama (home) but do avoid Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. The 2nd weekend of the season features an interesting OOC game vs NC State in Charlotte. Vols might not quite be in that top tier in the SEC, but the best team in the middle of the pack will still be in contention for an at large playoff spot. |
| 12 | Miami – HC Mario Cristobal is developing a reputation for giving away games that his team has enough talent to win. The most glaring recent example the freakish loss to GA Tech this past season, when a kneel down with a minute to go would have won the game. But Cristobal has consistently been a great recruiter and he is now aggressively using the portal to improve the Cane’s talent. Persistence was the name of the game and Miami was rewarded with landing formar Washington St QB Cam Ward, one of it not the top QB on the transfer market. And Cristobal isn’t done, as Miami recently added RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State, who rushed for over 1100 yards with the Beavers. The Miami schedule begins with a trip to Florida, and they also go to Louisville, but VA Tech and FSU come to Miami Gardens. At this point, the talent level at Miami will be so high (compared to their schedule) that even Cristobal won’t be able to screw it up, and the Canes are one of the favorites to win the conference. |
| 13 | Michigan – speaking of transitions, the Wolverines finally broke through under HC Jim Harbaugh in ’23, not only beating Ohio State again and winning the Big 10, but defeating the SEC champion in the playoffs on the way to the national championship. Then it went downhill from there – unlike the shocking move by Saban, Harbaugh leaving for the NFL was generally expected, and he took his DC and S&C coach with him. New HC Sherrone Moore was the Wolverines OC and filled in at HC when Harbaugh was suspended for the spying scandal. Moore brought in the former NY Giants DC in Wink Martindale who will run a similar defensive scheme. As for the players, much of the experienced talent from ’23 has moved on including QB JJ Mccarthy, RB Blake Corum and most of the o-line.; but some of the stars on D are back including CB Will Johnson (4 INTs last year) and DT Mason Graham (7.5 TFL) The schedule features a monster OOC game when Texas visits in week 2 and showdowns with Ohio State and Big Ten newcomer Oregon. Moore appears to be ready for a HC position and the transition will be easier, but there is a lot of talent to replace. |
| 14 | FSU – Maybe the worst ending in college football history to a dream season, when the undefeated ACC champs lost their starting QB to injury, their backup QB to injury, were left out of the playoff, drew the team that was #1 the entire regular season, had 12 starters opt out of the bowl, where they were rolled by UGA. After entering 2023 as a very experienced team, the opposite will be true this year. Former QB Jordan Travis leads a long list of starters off to the NFL. But HC Mike Norvell has been slowly building the talent thru traditional recruiting and has been one of the best at using the portal to fill in. And that starts with presumed starter at QB, DJ Uiagalelei, who spent last year at Oregon State after 2 seasons at FSU’s rival Clemson. DJU is an experienced, dual threat QB, but after 3 years as a P5 starter may already be at his ceiling. The running game though looks solid with Alabama transfer Roydell Williams added to returning Lawrence Toafili. The defense was phenomenal late in the year vs Florida and Louisville, and there may not be much off a drop off. Jared Verse is off to the NFL but Seminole legacy and former Georgia Bulldog Marvin Jones Jr looked the part of wrecking ball edge rusher in the Spring “game”. The secondary also lost talent to the NFL but Norvell brought in reinforcements through the portal. The schedule is much more difficult this year (going from #61 to #12 according to Phil Steele) and includes the showdown with Clemson (in Tallahassee) relatively early in the year, tricky Sept games vs Memphis and at SMU and then a late season stretch at Miami, vs North Carolina and at Notre Dame that will likely make or break the year for the Noles. |
| 15 | Oklahoma St – Utah might be the slight favorite to win the new Big 12, but the Pokes are very close behind. Their star on the team is RB Ollie Gordon II, who led the FBS in rushing with 1,732 yards in 2023. OK State also returns QB Alan Bowman, playing his 7th season of college football, plus all five starting o-lineman and leading receiver Brennan Presley. The Cowboys picked up a couple of key transfers to shore up the defense. The schedules includes home game with FCS power South Dakota State and SEC member Arkansas, but many key conference games are on the road , including Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Kansas State and TCU. |
| 16 | LSU – The Tiger offense was phenomenal in 2023 and look no further than the NFL draft for final proof – Heisman Trophy winning QB Jayden Daniels was taken 2nd, and two WR’s went in the top 25 of the draft. The heir apparent at QB is Garrett Nussmeier after an impressive performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Those two WRs will be missed, but HC Brian Kelly brought in experienced transfers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State) to fill in. The D was a mess in 2023 so Kelly made a number of changes to the staff, included throwing $2.5 million at the former Missouri DC Blake Baker to come to LSU. There is talent on defense to work with, including LB Harold Perkins. Kelly also brought in several DBs from the portal to shore up a secondary that really struggled in ’23. LSU opens with a Caleb Williams less USC and faces their old SEC West foes, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M plus newbie OU. Kelly has some rebuilding to do but there is always talent in Baton Rouge. |
| 17 | Missouri – Tigers are coming off one of the best seasons in program history, going 11-2, with wins over Florida and Tennessee in the division and over Ohio State in the bowl. HC Eli Drinkwitz brings back leading WR Luther Burden (1200+ yards receiving) and QB Brady Cook (3300 yds passing, 365 passes wi/o INT is SEC record) on offense. The Tigers lose their top RB in Cody Shrader, but hope that transfer Marcus Carroll (1300 yards rushing and 13 TDs for Georgia State last year) will be a suitable replacement. The defense has more rebuilding to do, including DC Blake Baker who left for LSU. DBs Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. as well as LB Ty’ron Hopper are all gone, but Drinkwitz has been using the portal to rebuild.This includes defensive help from Clemson, Georgia and Florida. The OOC schedule does not include a top 30 team and in conference, the Tigers draw Alabama, A&M and OU, with open dates before A&M and OU. If the transfers can fill in the holes on D, Mizzou could easily finish higher than this, but last year was such an outlier, there’s a chance they regress back a bit. |
| 18 | K State – The Wildcats have become a consistent successful program under HC Chris Klieman, but some rebuilding is needed for 2024. Experienced QB WIll Howard transferred to Ohio State, but dual threat Avery Johnson looked good in the win over NC State in the Pop Tarts Bowl. K-State’s OC also left (for Texas A&M) and Klieman replaced him with the former O-Line coach Matt Wells, who had been a HC at Texas Tech. The o-line must be classified as a rebuild as 4 of the 5 starters depart. The September schedule in the newly expanded Big 12 will make or break the Wildcats in 2024 as it goes at Tulane, Arizona, at BYU, OK State. They do get a break and don’t draw Utah, one of the favorites for the Big 12 Title. |
| 19 | Iowa – the new national pastime last season became tracking the Iowa offense to see if they could make the points goals established by the AD or OC Brian Ferentz (HC Kirk’s son) would be fired. The Hawkeyes averaged 15.4 ppg, ranking next to last in FBS. Brian Ferentz was shown the door and former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester was brought in to improve the struggling offense. Meanwhile, the defense and special teams were excellent in 2023, and Iowa won 10 games in spite of the offense. The optimism for 2024 is that the defense will still be very good as some 6 year seniors, including DB Jermari Harris and LB Jay Higgins return. The offense should be better with a healthy Cade McNamara (lost for the season in game 5) and the change at OC. In most case, losing the starting P is not that big of a deal, but it is at Iowa as Tory Taylor was key in several of Iowa’s wins. But it’s the schedule that may be the most helpful in allowing Iowa to finish in the Top 25, as the Hawkeyes skip Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and USC, and Nebraska and Wisconsin come to Iowa City. |
| 20 | Texas A&M – The Jimbo Fisher era came to a close at A&M, not with multiple national titles but a loss to OK State in the Texas Bowl. After paying the largest buyout in history to move on from Fisher, the Aggies went a different direction from the big splash hire and brought back Mike Elko after two years as HC at Duke. Elko is very familiar with the program as he was the DC there before he went to Durham. Elko was immediately successful as Duke was 3-9 (0-8 ACC) in David Cutcliffe’s last season, but went 9-4 (5-3) in Elko’s first year and 8-5 (4-4) in his second, even though the starting QB was injured during the 5th game and featured the opening upset of then #9 Clemson. A&M brings back QB Conner Weigman and returns more production from last year than any other SEC team, as evidenced by their #13 ranking in Bill Connelly’s SP+. The Defense was a strong point of the team already and Elko brought in the #1 rated Edge Nic Scourton from Purdue, who led the Big 10 in sacks. The Aggies were 0-4 in one score games and had bad injury luck – both signs that point to an improvement in 2024. The schedule isn’t easy, but could be much tougher – big OOC opener with Notre Dame (at home), and also get Texas, LSU and Missouri in Kyle Field; and who’s not on the schedule is equally important – Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. Elko has the opportunity to make another splash as a first year coach at A&M as he did at Duke. |
| 21 | Oklahoma – HC Brent Venables 2nd season at OU went much better than the first, though ended with a loss to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. Star QB Dillion Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but former 5* Jackson Arnold made some big plays (and some mistakes too) filling in for Gabriel in the bowl. The Sooners lose their leading WR, but bring back most of the rest of the receiver corp, and add All-Big Ten Purdue WR Deion Burks. The challenge on offense is the loss of 4 of the 5 starting o-lineman. Venables will try to fix this through the portal, as he’s brought in o lineman from Michigan St, Florida and North Texas. The defense on the other hand, is very experienced, and among the returnees are two All-Americans, LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman. Venables decided to make a change at DC and Ted Roof is out and Zac Alley is in. The schedule does not feature a ranked OOC game, but does include Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri in addition to the Red River Rivalry vs Texas as an SEC game. Hope Venables is ready for a full SEC schedule! |
| 22 | Iowa State – not a great start for the Cyclones in 2023 as a disappointing loss to rival Iowa was followed by an embarrassing loss to Ohio . But HC Matt Campbell was playing the most number of freshman of any P5 program, and it started to pay dividends. Freshman QB Rocco Becht exploded onto the scene, throwing for over 3000 yards on the season, including the school single game record of 446 yards vs Memphis in the bowl; Becht was the Big 12 Freshman of the year. The Cyclones star WRs, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, combined for 199 catches and 1800 yards both return as does their top TE. The main knock on the offense is the OC left for the NFL, but the TE coach was promoted to keep the continuity going. The defense only featured one senior starter last year , and all 4 from the line return. Actually, only 2 starters from last season’s defense are not back, but that includes Corner TJ Tampa who is off to the NFL. Tampa is a notable loss, allowing only 1 TD in 414 coverage snaps, but the other starting corner and all the safeties return in ’24. The schedule has the early OOC game with rival Iowa, and does include some tough road trips in the Big 12 – WVU, Kansas and Utah, but UCF and K State come to Ames and they skip Arizona. ISU will never rank high on any talent ranking, but the experience and sensational QB could lead to another special season. |
| 23 | Virginia Tech – The Brent Pry era got off to a slow start in Blacksburg with only 3 wins in his first year. Last season continued the poor results with a 1-3 first month. But the season turned with a big win over Pitt that lead to a 6-3 finish, including a 21 point bowl victory over Tulane. Tech has a whipping 21 starters back for 2024 and rates as 31 in Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings. QB Kyron Drones , a transfer from Baylor, found his groove the last 4 weeks of the season, leading the Hokies to average 43 ppg. Drones was also the team’s second leading rusher with over 800 yards on the ground. Leading rusher from ’23 Bhayshul Tuten was also a big part of the teams turnaround, with 4 100 yard rushing games in the last 8 of the season. He’ll be running behind a line that returns all of their starters! The defense allowed 24 ppg last year and with 10 starters back plus DL transfers from OU and Duke, should improve on those numbers in ’24. All special teams returns. The toughest games are at Miami and home vs Clemson; but the HOkies avoid FSU and NC State. Their OOC games are Vandy, Marshall, ODU and Rutgers. Tech could easily be 7-2 or 8-1 when Clemson visits a rocking Lane Stadium on November 9. |
| 24 | USC – HC Lincoln Riley entered the 2023 season with a Heisman Trophy winning QB and an influx of transfers to improve the defense to make a push for a playoff spot. The season ended with 5 loss Trojan team in the Holiday Bowl and Riley covered in egg nog. The glimmer of hope though was that USC’s heir apparent at QB Miller Moss threw 6 TDs in the rout of Louisville in that game. The Trojans do lose their top 2 WRs, but the replacements are all blue chippers. This includes Zacharia Branch and Duce Robinson, the #1 WR and #1 TE in the 2023 recruiting class. Even with less experience, Riley is known for producing great offenses. The challenge, as it’s been, is on D. Riley did finally make the move to fire DC Alex Grinch and brought in D’Anton Lynn from down the street at UCLA. Now only was UCLA in the top 20 in most defensive metrics last year, it was one year turnaround from ranking around 100 in those same categories just one year prior. Bear Alexander is back at DT and they add Nate Clifton who had 7.5 TFL at Vandy. Lynn brought in a number of other transfers for the defense rebuild, including 2 all Pac 12 players from Oregon State and 2 that followed him from UCLA . The schedule is tough with an OOC opener vs LSU in Vegas and ending with Notre Dame in the Coliseum. They do not face Oregon or Ohio State, but go to Michigan and get Penn State at home. If Lynn can make the same defensive improvements he did last year at UCLA, the Trojans and take a step forward after last year’s disappointment. |
| 25 | Nebraska – Temple was 4-7 in Steve Addazio’s last season with the Owls. Matt Rhule was hired and promptly went 2-10, giving Idaho their only win of the season. However, the subsequent seasons were 6-6 and then the breakthrough 10-4 in year 3. Rhule left Temple to rebuild Baylor’s program after the Art Briles scandal and one year of Jim Grobe – a 7-6 season. Rhules first year – 1-11; but then 7-6, which was followed by 11-3, and a Sugar Bowl appearance in year 3. Note the pattern? Rhule has not been an immediate turn around artist but has multiple times dramatically built teams in 2-3 years. Rhules first year at Nebraska was only 5-7 but that was a 1 game improvement. The bugaboo from the Scott Frost era continued where the Huskers struggle to win close game. The savior of Nebraska football has arrived as 5* QB recruit Dylan Riola spurned the mighty Georgia Bulldogs to come to Lincoln and has looked the part so far in Spring practice. Also, the Huskies get a big break in the schedule not facing Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. The tough stretch comes late in the season with USC, Iowa and Wisconsin in a row. But the opportunity is there for a bowl game or more in Rhule’s second year. |
| 26 | Memphis – The Tigers are off their first 10 win season since Mike Norvell led them to as 12-2 record and Cotton Bowl berth in 2019. That 10-3 season included a 7pt loss to Missouri (finished #8 in the nation) and by 3 to AAC Champ SMU. Their success was primarily due to a prolific offense that averaged an AAC best 39 ppg. QB Seth Henigan is a big reason why, and he is back for this 4th year as a starter, a rarity in this transfer happy era. He threw for over 3800 yards in ’23, and brings back his top 2 WRs in Roc Taylor (1083 yds!) and Demeer Blankumsee (901 yds). the 0-line is experienced too. The D has more questions after a season where giving up big plays was a big problem – 80 plays over 20 yards. HC Ryan Silverfield brings in two transfers safeties (from Samford and ODU) to help out right away. Memphis has one of the tougher schedules in the AAC, facing Tulane, UTSA and USF all on the road, plus an OOC trip to Tallahassee to face their former HC now at FSU. As long as Henigan stays healthy, this is one of the teams in the race for the G5 spot in the new 12 team playoffs. |
| 27 | SMU – The Mustangs lost to Oklahoma in the 2nd game of the season last year, but went 8-0 in the AAC and upset Tulane in the conference championship game to win their first conference title since 1984. The Ponies parlayed this success and their big money boosters to get back to a Power conference for the first time since the old Southwest Conference dissolved in the early 90s. HC Rhett Lashlee has typically featured a great offense and this season should be no exception. QB Preston Stone returns after throwing for over 3000 yards and a 28/6 ratio, before getting injured late in the year. Virtually all of Stone’s weapons are back, including leading rusher Jaylan Knighton and top WR Jake Bailey. Actually, SMU returns their top 4 rushers and top 7 receivers, but are somewhat rebuilding on the o-line. The defense improved dramatically from ’22 to ’23 going from 34 ppg allowed to 18!. The defense returns 7 starters, and is most experienced at linebacker, but has a few holes to fill on the line; Lashlee brought in a number of transfers to help out. The schedule is much tougher this year with the move from the American to the ACC, and it makes me a little nervous that they were 9-0 vs the AAC last year but 0-3 vs the P5. However, in ACC play they avoid Clemson, Miami, Va Tech and NC State and get FSU at home. Even with the step up in schedule difficulty, the Ponies have a great shot to make some noise in their first year in the conference. |
| 28 | Liberty – the Flames were 13-0 and Conference USA champs in 2023, and became the G5 representative in the NY6 bowls last year. That game vs Oregon did not go well and ended the dream season with a thud. But the biggest offseason news is that a) HC Jamey Chadwell did not get scooped up by a P4 program, and B) that prolific QB Kaidon Salter returns to Liberty after briefly entering the transfer portal. He threw for 2,876 yards and 32 touchdowns, completing 61% of his passes. He ranked fourth nationally in yards per attempt (9.92) and third in yards per completion (16.2). He also ran for 1,089 yards and 12 touchdowns, ranking 36th nationally and third among QBs. Last season, the Flames faced a much weaker schedule than the other top G5 teams, but used that to their advantage as the undefeated record got them past other teams with worse records but much tougher schedules. It could happen again in 2024, getting Liberty into the playoffs as the top G5 team. Only Western Kentucky seems much of a threat in the conference, and the OOC games are all winnable, but more difficult than last year. The toughest tests are home games with East Carolina and WKU and a road trip to Boone to face App State. The game with WKU could be the first of two as these are the teams favored to reach the title game. The Flames probably need to win both to get the G5 playoff bid. |
| 30 | UCF – I had high expectation for Gus Malzahn in his first year taking over the Knights, but the record ended in a disappointing 6-7. Upon further review, the team may have been better than the record suggested – a 2pt loss to OU and two 1 pt losses to Texas Tech and Baylor. Malzahn may not have acquired the best QB in the portal, but maybe it’s the best fit, with 6’3″ 250 lb KJ Jefferson transferreringto Orlando after spending 3 years in Fayetteville. Seems like Malzahn had some success in the past with a big QB that was a great runner. The Knights leading receiver did leave for the NFL but the 2nd receiver and top RB RJ Harvey return. Harvey rushed for 1416 yards, third most in school history. Malzahn added JaVarius Johnson, who was AU leading WR last year. The run defense was bad in ’23 so Malzahn brought in the much traveled Ted Roof as his DC. Roof has had several top rated rush defenses in his career. Malzahn brought in the schools highest ranking high school recruiting class and the highest ranked transfer class. The schedule features a huge OOC game at Florida Oct 5. IN the Big 12, they get Utah and Arizona at home, travel to Iowa State and WVU, and don’t face K-State, KU or OK State. UCF has a chance at a big 2nd year in the P4. |
| 29 | NC State – the Wolfpack were 9-3 in the regular season in ’23 (6-2 in the ACC) and just missed on a rare 10 win season after losing the Pop Tarts bowl. HC Dave Dorren has upped his use of the portal and snagged one of the most prolific QBs in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina (over 10,000 yards passing in his career), although there are questions on how mobile he is now after injuries. The Pack added former Duke RB Jordan Waters, who was Blue Devils leading rusher with 819 yards and 12 scores in 2023. Dorren wasn’t done in the portal with that, as State brought in a number of WR’s , including from Ohio State and Wake, and attempted at least to shore up the vacancies on defense with some DBs, including Donovan Kaufman from Auburn. Their marquee games are early with a huge OOC game vs Tennessee in week 2 in Charlotte and traveling to Clemson in week 4. The Pack do not face either FSU or Miami. Dorren has built a solid program in Raleigh, can he take advantage of a very experienced QB and manageable schedule to have a breakthrough year? |
| 31 | Kansas – the key to the Jayhawks continued resurgence (9 wins in ’23), is the health of QB Jalen Daniel’s, but maybe the most important factor was that HC Lance Leipold did not parlay his success into a bigger job, but returns to Lawrence. The WR room is experienced and RB Devin Neal returned to set the KU all time rushing record. A bit of a mixed bag on defense, with a good backend, featuring 2 of the big 12s best corners in Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson. The front four lose their two best, but do have some depth that can step up to fill in. At Illinois is the one p4 OOC game, ,and U.K. beat the Illini last year; the new look big 12 schedule does include road games vs WVU, K-State, and BYU, but the Jayhawks skip conference contenders Utah and Arizona. Leipold 30 seniors back from a team that had 3 close losses last year, and is a possible contender for the conference championship. |
| 32 | Louisville – the campaign run by the big Cardinals boosters to bring Jeff Brohm back “home” to Louisville finally came to fruition in 2023, and they were rewarded immediately. Brohm followed up his appearance with Purdue in the Big 10 Championship game, by leading Louisville to their first ever appearance in the ACC championship game. The 3 straight losses to end the year, including to a struggling Kentucky team dampened the spirits a bit, but a 10 win regular season highlighted by a big win vs Notre Dame was everything the fans dreamed of when Brohm returned. The Cardinals finished in the top 25 last year in total defense and #10 in 3rd down conversion D. All 4 starting d linemen return, including all ACC Ashton Gillotte at DE. Two starting Dbs left for the NFL but Brohm added former Tennessee S Tamarian McDonald and FCS All American Blake Ruffin among others. The offense is a bigger rebuild, but Brohm is also one of the Portal Kings, bringing in 31 transfers – #2 in the country – and ranked in the Top 15 in the portal class. The key transfer is the much traveled Tyler Shough, the QB at Oregon and Texas Tech, now in his 7th year in college. Shough is very experienced but is coming off a season ending injury. The schedule features a return matchup with Notre Dame, this time in South Bend, a trip to Clemson and a visit from Miami, but no FSU, VA Tech or NC State. If the transfers on offense can jell around an experienced transfer QB, the Cards could once again take advantage of a manageable schedule to be a contender in the ACC. |
| 33 | Boise State – It was not looking good on the blue turf when the Broncos returned from a loss to Fresno, dropping their record to 4-5. HC Andy Avalos would get fired and replaced by an interim, DC Spencer Danielson. The players responded, the team won out, took the Mountain West title and the interim title was dropped. Fr (now So) Maddux Madsen was primarily the backup QB last season, but did play more and more until he suffered from a season ending injury. The other 2 QBs transferred out, but Boise was the recipient of blue chipper QB Malachi Nelson. Madsen seemed the best of the QB room last year, so expect more production in 2024. Star RB Ashton Jeanty returns after 1300+ yards on the ground and the Mtn West award for POY. Four of the olineman are back as well. The defense returns 11 starters, including all 4 on the interior line and the DL should be the best in the conference. The schedule features a tricky OOC opener at GA Southern, then almost a guaranteed loss at Oregon. But in the MW, Boise skips Fresno and Air Force. It makes me nervous when a interim has some success and is popular with the players, so he gets the permanent job. Historically, this doesn’t usually work out, but time will tell for Boise. |
| 34 | Rutgers – They say a team takes on the personality of its head coach, and that is definitely the case in New Brunswick. Rutgers features a run first, ball control offense that complements a solid defense in HC Greg Schiano’s second stint with the program. RB Kyle Monangai is the centerpiece of that offense and he returns in ’24. His 1262 yards led the Big Ten and was the first player at Rutgers since 2012 to top 1000 yards. Three of the Knights 0-lineman earned Big 10 honors and all return. The Rutgers passing attack could use some tweaking, after ranking 127th in the country last season. Kurt Ciarrocca is expected to be the starting QB after transferring in from Minnesota, but his 2023 with the Gophers was pedestrian. Run, run, run will be the theme again in ’24. The defense was a strength of the team and 8 starters are back; 9 if you include Tyreem Powell who played the first 8 games before he was out for the year due to injury. The secondary should be very good again with the top 3 all returning. The schedule is quite amazing actually, with a tough OOC at Virginia Tech (after Rutgers upset the Hokies last year), but somehow, the Knights don’t play any of the top 5 teams in the Big Ten – Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, or Iowa. The opportunity is there for a good season by Rutgers standards. |
| 35 | Texas State – College Football’s “Portal King” may reside in Boulder, Tallahassee or Oxford… but don’t forget about San Marcos! HC GJ Kinne (KENNY) has worked the portal masterfully to lead the Bobcats to their best season in their short history in FBS, and excitement is high for 2024. The first game in the Kinne era was an upset of Baylor as a 27 pt underdog and was followed a few weeks later by laying a77 spot on Jackson State. The Bobcats went to and won a bowl game, their first in both categories ever. TJ Finley (transfer from NC State) threw for nearly 3500 yards to lead the offense last season, but left for WKY in the offseason. Kinne brought in QB Jordan McCloud from James Madison, the Sun Belt POY after throwing for 3600 yards and a 35-10 ratio. Surrounding Finley is their top RB Ismail Mahdi (1300 yds rushing) and 4 of their top 5 receivers. The defense is experienced too, with 9 starters back and expected to have the best d-line in the conference. The schedule is very favorable with the biggest OOC a home game vs Arizona State, and the Bobcats skip App State and several other top contenders from the Sun Belt East. Texas State has the chance to break their record for wins in a season (set last year with 8). |
