Author Archives: FSUMoose93

Top 25 for 2017: #21-#25

 

21. Notre Dame – 2016 was a forgettable year for Irish fans, with the team beginning the season ranked #10 but stumbling to a 4-8 finish. HC Brian Kelly has cleaned house on his staff bringing in a new DC (from Wake Forest) and an OC from Memphis. Both 2016 QBs have either graduated or transferred, but otherwise 15 starters are back. The Irish did have several close losses last season that could fall the other way this year, but a challenging schedule will limit the turn around.

22. Texas – by far the most important “recruit” to Texas was not a player but getting new HC Tom Herman from Houston. Herman was a success from the get-go in his first season with the Cougars, and the Longhorn fans are hoping for some of that magic right away at Texas. It does appear that at least some pieces are in place, including a QB in sophomore Shane Buechele, and a whopping 10 starters back on defense. There always seemed to be more talent under previous HC Charlie Strong than the game day performance showed, but Herman still has his work cut out for him. The schedule is not easy with a non-conference game against USC and a deep conference where each team plays each other.

23. UCLA – the Bruins have not been a reliable pick under Jim Mora and are coming of a dreadful 4-8 campaign in 2016. However the team suffered through a terrible rash of injuries and when QB Josh Rosen went down so did UCLA’s chances. With 9 starters back on offense including a healthy Rosen, I look for a much higher scoring team. A tough schedule though reduces the chances of a really big year.

24. Northwestern – Wisconsin is the big favorite in the Big Ten West, but Northwestern, Nebraska and Iowa will all battle it out for second. The Wildcats feature 15 returning starters, including their starting QB and RB; and have the most favorable schedule – skipping Ohio State and Michigan and OOC schedule includes Duke, Bowling Green and Nevada. If Northwestern can flip some of the close losses from 2016 into close wins in 2017, a top 25 finish is possible.

25. Oregon – The Ducks program took a dramatic dive from the 2014 National Championship game appearance to the 8 loss campaign in 2016, and it cost HC Mark Helfrich his job. In comes Willie Taggart from USF, and he has talent to work with. QB Justin Herbert was solid as a true Fr after taking over the starting job, and should be improved with the extra year of experience. Add in the return of Sr RB Royce Freeman, and the Ducks offense should be very good. The defense struggled last season, but new DC Jim Leavitt did a great job with Colorado’s D the past two years. The Ducks come into the season a much more experienced team than the past two seasons, giving Taggart a great opportunity to get the new era off to a good start.

Top 25 for 2017: first up – the next 10

It’s about that time college football fans, the season is just around the corner! Mrcollegesports presents the forecast Top 25 for 2017 with a special bonus this year – the next 10 teams that just missed making the Top 25.
This week Mrcollegesports will count down the Top 25, starting with the next 10 (#26-#35), then revealing the rest over the next few days, culminating with the top 5 including the playoff teams and the predicted national champion.

Without further ado, the 10 that just missed the Top 25 but could finish in the rankings with just a break here or there…

26. West Virginia – did you ever wonder what happen to former Florida QB Will Grier? He was the QB the last time the Gator offense was good, but after receiving a full year suspension for PEDs, instead of waiting, he transferred out of the Florida program. He landed here at WVU, maybe the least respected 10-2 team in all the power conferences last season, and Grier in HC Dana Holgorsen’s offense gives the Neer’s a fighting chance. Some are saying he’s better than Skyler Howard who Grier is replacing. The problem is, well, everything else. The Mountaineers lose their top 5 tacklers on defense and only return 3 starters on that side of the ball. The Big 12 will be improved and as many as 6 teams will be vying for spots in the top 25.

27. NC State – Will Muschamp, whose South Carolina team opens with the Wolfpack, called States front 4 on defense the best the Gamecocks will face all year. That’s a pretty strong statement given the defensive talent in the SEC plus the season ender against Clemson. But it’s not all over the top coach speak, and with 21 seniors on the roster, including 11 seniors among the returning starters, the Pack are poised for their first true breakout year under HC Dave Dorren. Being in the ACC’s Atlantic Division is a challenge, but the Pack do not see Miami or VA Tech from the Coastal. Don’t be surprised if NCSU finally pulls the upset on one of the big powers in the division.

28. Washington State – the Cougars had a great season in Pac 12 play in 2016, but really hurt their overall record and ranking with some bad non-conference losses to open the year. QB Luke Falk has been spectacular in HC Mike Leach’s air raid offense, and should put up eye-popping numbers again. The big question, as it always is with the air raid teams, is the defense. With 9 starters returning on D, the Cougs just need some improvement to make some noise in the deep Pac 12 North.

29. TCU – A disappointing season for the Frogs ended with a thud, a loss to Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. But a rebound is in store for ‘17 with a whopping 10 starters back on offense (compared to 2 in ‘16) and a defense more like the ones HC Gary Patterson has produced over the years. QB Kenny Hill is back and more mature after an inconsistent 2016, and, literally, his entire corp of receivers return intact. TCU will be a tough out in 2017 and may contend for more than just a top 30 ranking.

30. Boise State – the Broncos have been the model for success in the Group of Five programs for many years now (especially since TCU and Utah joined power conferences), but the Boise program has taken a bit of a step back since HC Chris Petersen left for Washington. Last year included a loss to Wyoming, a team the Broncos used to dominate, and a third consecutive loss to Air Force. Still, with QB Rypien back, the offense should be very good, and the Broncos will compete with USF for the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six Bowls.

31. Tennessee – 2016 was supposed to be the year that the Vols decade long rebuilding finally resulted in an SEC East division title. Late season losses to underdogs South Carolina and Vanderbilt ended what had started as a promising season. UT loses a number of the key players on offense, including QB Joshua Dobbs whose heroics seemed to single handedly win some games. But the news is better on defense where 7 starters return, and injuries last season will result in a deeper pool of experienced players this year. The Vols do still have talent and maybe this program will perform better when they’re under the radar.

32. Virginia Tech – HC Justin Fuente’s debut season replacing the legendary Frank Beamer went about as well as Hokie Nation could ask for, with 10 wins, a strong performance in the ACCCG and a top 20 final ranking. The 2nd year HC now has some rebuilding to do, especially on offense where QB AND leading rusher Jerod Evans surprisingly declared early for the NFL (and was not 1 of the 10 QBs drafted). Long time DC Bud Foster did field a top 20 defensive unit in 2016 and with 7 starters returning, should be the strength of the team. The opener with West Virginia at the Redskins stadium will let the world know where the rebuilding stands right out of the gate.

33. BYU – The cardiac kids from BYU were nothing if not exciting to start last season, with each of their first FIVE games decided by 3 points or less (with a 2-3 record to show for it). The Cougs lose their starting QB Taysom Hill, but return back-up Tanner Mangum, who has played for many years and battled more than one season ending injury. The defense does return 7 starters, but the team overall is less experienced than entering last year. The life as an independent means a widely varying schedule, and 2017 is no different – with opponents ranging from Wisconsin and LSU to UMass and Portland State. First year HC Kalani Sitake had a good debut season replacing Bronco Mendenhall and look for another solid year in Provo in ‘17.

34. Utah – The Utes are typically overlooked when talking about the Pac 12, yet each year HC Kyle Whittingham usually has his team in the Pac 12 South race until the end. That said, wth star RB Joe Williams leaving, this is one of the least experienced Utah teams in recent years. QB Troy Williams is back, but he was not dynamic as a passer. Still, look for HC Kyle Whittingham to plug some holes on D and field another physical team.

35. Texas A&M – If you look up “hot seat” in the dictionary, you’ll now find a picture of Aggie HC Kevin Sumlin, after the A&M A.D. spelled out the expectation for improvement in 2017. The Aggies have now started hot early then collapsed down the stretch for 3 straight years, turning Top 10 rankings in mid-season into unranked 8-5 finishes. The problem now is the Aggies lose their QB and star defensive player, and still face a tough SEC West schedule with the opener at UCLA. They do have an experienced talend defense, but I don’t see that as enough to improve upon their recent 8-5 records.

Forecast Top 25 for 2016

1 Clemson We saw what QB Deshaun Watson did against a great Bama D and this year’s offense should be even better with the return of RB Wayne Gollman and WR Mike Willians and the rest of the talent on offense. Defense is rebuilding, but a good sign that DC Brent Venerables reloaded last season with even fewer returning starters. Tigers face only 2 of these Top 25 teams, including Louisville at home. ACC Game of the Century October 29 in Tallahassee is for a playoff berth.
2 Alabama This ranking is heavily based on HC Nick Saban’s resume. The Tide have won national titles with a similar profile to this years team – only 11 starters back, freakishly talented on D and having to find a new QB. And a few defenders turned down an early jump to the NFL to return to T-Town. But a couple of differences – the new QB will be working with a new center, unlike the past 2 seasons; and DC Kirby Smart will no longer be on the sidelines for the Defense. The SEC West is no picnic in any year, but with Ole Miss, Tenn and LSU all on the road, the gauntlet is even more challenging. A playoff spot this season will cement Saban’s rep as the best in the business.
3 Michigan Programs often make their greatest progress in the 2nd season of a new HC, and if that happens for the Wolverines, the sky’s the limit. HC Jim Harbaugh has been a social media maven since arriving in Ann Arbor, which has taken some attention away from the fact that Michigan went from 5-7 to 10-3 in his first year! The challenge will be finding a new QB, but this was the case last year and Harbaugh got a career year out of Jake Rudock. Wolverines do have a new DC but Don Brown comes from BC – the nation’s #1 defense last year. The beginning of the schedule is easier than last year, giving time for the new QB to get in a groove before the games at Iowa, Michigan State and Michigan determine the fate of the season.
4 LSU It looked like HC Les Miles was going to be fired after a 3 game losing streak took the Tigers out of the playoff and SEC race, but a win over A&M to close the year and disagreement in the athletic dept gave him a reprieve. LSU has not finished in the Top 10 since losing the BCS Championship game to Alabama in 2011 but has a chance at a special season this year. New DC Dave Aranda will have 9 starters back to work with and much more talent than he had even while very successful at Wisconsin. Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette returns at RB after setting the school season record for rushing yards. QB play has held back the program for a few years now, but should improve enough with a dominant D and rushing attack to give the Tigers a realistic shot at the playoffs.
5 Ohio State Urban Meyer is an eye popping 50-4 since taking over the Buckeyes four years ago, but 2016 will be the biggest challenge. The Buckeyes had an incredible 9 players taken in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft, which begs the question how this team didn’t make the playoffs last year. For most programs this would be a complete rebuilding year, but there is so much talent in Columbus, the dropoff won’t be as much as you’d think. With an experienced QB in JT Barrett back, and a Big 10 schedule that is once again back loaded, the Buckeyes will be in the conference and playoff race until the end.
6 Tennessee HC Butch Jones has been building towards this year with 17 starters back from a team that lost close games to 2 of the playoff participants. Vols defense has improved in each of the last 3 years and with 8 starters back should continue that streak. And Tennessee has one of the few experienced QBs returning in the SEC, unlike the 3 best teams on their schedule. Alabama and Florida come to Knoxville, and the Vols don’t play a ranked opponent in the non-conference schedule. UT is the clear favorite to win the East meaning they’re an upset in the SECCG away from making the playoffs.
7 Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield may be the big star, but OU will feature a one-two punch at RB in Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine that will be hard to top on any team in the country. On D, Sooners do lose some of their big playmakers, but still return about as many starters as last years unit that went on to finish in the Top 10 in spite of playing in the pass happy Big 12. There are some big concerns here though – a brutal schedule that includes Ohio State and Houston in OOC games and an interesting stat unearthed by Phil Steele: the last 4 times OU was ranked in preseason top 5, Sooners finished outside top 15 all 4 times and unranked twice!
8 Notre Dame Irish came very close to making the playoffs in ’15 with close losses to Clemson and Stanford (#2 and #3 in the final poll). This year’s squad only has nine returning starters, but the number is a little deceiving as numerous injuries took their toll last year, but results in more players with experience for this season. Both starting QBs from last season return in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire provide HC Brian Kelly with options if one is injured or not playing well. Last 2 years featured a road game against an ACC team that made the playoffs, but this year’s ‘conference’ road game is at NC State.
9 Washington HC Chris Petersen slowly building talent in Seattle and enter 2015 with QB Jake Browning, RB Miles Gaskin and 4 starting o-lineman returning. The offense exploded for 40+ points in each of the last 3 games, to rally the program to a winning record and set the stage for 2015. 7 starters are back from a defense that held opponents to 19 pts per game, leading the Pac 12. The schedule is not easy but the Huskies do skip UCLA, the favorite from the South; and the key may be that 2015 North division champion Stanford comes to Husky Stadium in late September.
10 Florida State Noles fans are having deja vu all over again as they look to a redshirt freshman QB (Deondre Francios) to lead the team as Jameis Winston did in his stunning debut season in 2013. The similarities don’t end there, in that ’13 team had an experienced oline, top RB and talented defense, all components of the 2016 team. The challenge for this season is a much tougher schedule in the first half of the season with that rFr QB and an oline that was not good in 2015. Can the Noles get through Ole Miss, at USF, at Louisville, UNC and at Miami in the first 6 games of the season with 1 loss or less to set up the Game of the Century with Clemson in late October?
11 Mississippi HC Hugh Freeze’s great recruiting class of ’13 paid dividends with back to back NY6 bowls, but several of those elite players are now in the NFL, including DT R Nkemdiche. But the most important offensive player, QB Chad Kelly, returns after leading the Rebs to 40+ points per game in 2015. Only 10 returning starters does mean a significantly less experienced team than last season. This would suggest a drop off for 2016, but with the best QB in the SEC at the helm and the depth of talent Freeze has recruited, the Ole Miss program will remain one of the SEC’s elite.
12 Stanford HC David Shaw has arguably been as good as Nick Saban in building a dynasty given the circumstances he faces at a private school where fan support for football is not rabid. The Cardinal bring back their most important player – not QB Kevin Hogan but all everything RB/WR/KR Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately, not many other starters return on offense and the Cardinal need to rebuild their oline.  Its hard to pick against Shaw, but a killer 5 week stretch of the schedule – USC, at UCLA, at Washington, WSU, and at Notre Dame, will make it hard to repeat last season’s top 5 finish. Still one of the Pac 12’s elite programs and will be in the division and conference race.
13 TCU Horned Frogs stumbled down the stretch of an injury plagued season and now only return 3 starters on offense for ’16. But HC Gary Patterson gets a very interesting transfer at QB as former TAMU QB Kenny Hill becomes eligible. All of those injuries hurt last year but provided a lot of depth for this year, so team is more experienced than the “returning starters’ stat suggests. This season looks to harken back to the strong defenses Patterson was known for in the Mountain West days.
14 Houston Electric QB Greg Ward Jr returns, but the bigger story is that HC Tom Hermann is back. The former Ohio State OC, Herman could not have had a better debut season as the Cougs went 13-1, upset Florida State in a NY6 bowl and finished in the top 10. This year’s team will be the hunted not the hunter, and is not as experienced as the 2015 edition. Hosting Oklahoma in the opener puts UH at least in the position of a run at a playoff spot if they can pull the upset. Up and coming teams like this typically don’t handle the transition to favorites well, but Hermann has done an amazing job so far.
15 Iowa Hawkeyes finally had their breakthrough season in 2015 and have a great opportunity to continue that success. Iowa’s offense only finished #72 in total offense in 2015, but was enough with a stout defense that forced a lot of turnovers. QB CJ Breathard is back along with 3 olineman they have depth at RB. The defense will be the strength of this team though with 8 starters back from a squad that ranked in the top 20 in the nation in scoring defense. The schedule is a little tougher including a visit from Michigan; but with all the top opponents coming to Iowa City, the Hawkeyes get the nod as favorite in the BIG10 West.
16 Baylor Unless your home address is Mars, whenever you hear the name “Baylor’ you’re not thinking about the team on the field. For this analysis, we’ll leave it at that. Several key injuries derailed the Bears season, but those players are expected back in ’16 including QB Seth Russell. Bears have to completely rebuild both lines though. The most significant on the field ramification to the turmoil is the replacement of HC Art Briles by former Wake Forest HC Jim Grobe. Grobe had success at Wake, but couldn’t sustain it and was forced out. This team could easily move into the Top 10 or finish the season unranked, it’s hard to predict how the players will react. Best guess is the loss of Briles (and nearly every starter on both oline and dline) will result in a decline.
17 UCLA Much heralded freshman QB Josh Rosen “The Rosen One” returns after a solid debut, but will have a less experienced team around him, at least on offense. The big improvement should come on defense, where after numerous injuries took their toll in 2015, 9 starters return. While the OOC schedule has potential land mines, at Texas A&M and at BYU, the conference schedule sets up nicely with Stanford and Oregon not on it, plus 5 home conf. games. Bruins lose too much on offense to be a playoff contender, but they’re the Pac 12 South favorite.
18 Michigan State HC Mark Dantonio has built a tremendous program at MSU, but 2016 will feature a number of challenges, starting with the loss of QB Connor Cook, one of 8 starters on offense to move on. And with all that experience on offense, Sparty finished #60 in the nation in scoring offense. The defense played well in 2015 and will be the strength of the team this year. Sparty plays well with a chip on their shoulder, but now faces a much tougher schedule with Notre Dame and BYU in non conference games, and Wisconsin and Northwestern from the West Division on the schedule.
19 Oregon HC Mark Helfrich is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a second year in a row, with a graduate transfer from an FCS program coming in to QB the Ducks. Bigger issue may be on the defensive side of the ball, where Oregon gave up 38 ppg in ’15. New DC Brady Hoke will try to improve the defense, but only 5 starters are back and none of their top 3 tacklers. Ducks do get Washington and Stanford at home, so any of these 3 could win the North, but the edge goes to the other 2.
20 Louisville All the ACC talk focuses on Clemson and FSU, but there is another team in the same division that will have a huge say in the conference race. The Cardinals won 8 of their last 10 games last season and come into 2016 as a much more experienced team. QB Lamar Jackson exploded in the bowl against Texas A&M, throwing for over 220 and rushing for over 220 in the win. UL has a tough non-conference game at Houston (after losing to the Cougs at home last year), but gets FSU at home in a great spot to pull off the upset.
21 Oklahoma State Pokes return QB Mason Rudolph along with four o-lineman which should lead to a very productive offense. Problem the past 2 years has been on D where OSU entered the last 2 games of the season #4 in the nation, only to give up 45+ point in each of the last 3 games including the bowl. The D has 7 starters back but also has to deal with the biggest games on the road. Cowboys are one of the most experienced teams in the conference but think the schedule will keep them from surpassing last season’s record.
22 Miami New HC Mark Richt was criticized at UGA for not winning the big one (or enough big ones), but he’s the best coach the Hurricanes have had in 15 years. UM brings back a great QB in Brad Kayaa who will operate behind a much more experienced oline. Miami has been pedestrian on defense for the 4 seasons, but gets a coaching upgrade here too in new DC Manny Diaz. The Canes don’t face ACC favorite Clemson and get rival FSU, and last years division winner, UNC, both at home. Richt seems very energized by the move and has a great opportunity to make a spash in year 1.
23 Georgia Dawgs finished 2015 with such unimpressive wins that a 10-3 SEC team finished unranked. New HC Kirby Smart has brought some of that Tide intensity to the UGA program. Dawgs will likely start a Fr QB, but QB play couldn’t get much worse or disjointed as it appeared at times last season, and a healthy Nick Chubb will take a lot of pressure off. D loses two top tacklers, but a lot of talent remains and Kirby should get the most out of them. No Bama on the schedule helps, but a trip to Ole Miss will be a challenge as will the opener against UNC. Still an 8 win season seems very doable.
24 Florida A poor finish took some of the shine off HC Jim McElwain’s first year, but 10 wins and the SEC East championship was well beyond expectations. Gators strength will continue to be a defense that held opponents to 18 points per game in 2015, and with 6 starters back should be able to about match the numbers. Big challenge is to upgrade the QB play that went off the rails after Will Grier was suspended and will look to a transfer, Luke Del Rio, to get the offense back on track. Don’t think the offense will be as good as it was under Grier, but don’t think it will be as bad as it was late in 2015. Gators should still be competitive in the SEC East.
25 USC Trojans return 10 starters on offense, and are loaded with talent at every position. Problem is that the 11th starter was QB Cody Kessler and USC will be much less experienced at the key position. Defense has more reloading to do, but the program is now finally back up to near normal scholarships and has better depth than in a number of years. Schedule is incredibly tough with non-conference games against Alabama and Notre Dame, plus the 3 best from the PAC 12’s other division, the North’s Oregon, Stanford and Washington. This is a very talented team but may get overwhelmed by the schedule.

Early look at 2016 Top 25

1 Clemson – Even with the loss of several defensive standouts, the return of Heisman favorite QB Deshaun Watson puts the Tigers on top.
2 Alabama – Tide will have a new QB and RB, but HC Nick Saban just reloads the machine. D-line will be very strong again.
3 Michigan – Wolverines went from 5 wins to 10 in HC Jim Harbaugh first season.. 8 starters back on offense but need to replace QB Jake Rudock
4 Notre Dame – A number of starters depart, but a several key players return from injury including QB Malik Zaire. Road game with Clemson replaced by visit to NC State.
5 Oklahoma – 7 starters back on offense including QB Baker Mayfield, but a brutal schedule that includes Ohio State and Houston
6 Tennessee – HC Butch Jones has been building towards this year with 17 starters back from a team that lost close games to 2 of the playoff participants. Vols will be heavy favorites in East and get Bama and UF at home.
7 Baylor – Several key injuries derailed the Bears season, but those players are expected back in ’16 including QB Seth Russell. Bears have to rebuild both lines though.
8 Stanford – HC David Shaw has arguably been as good as Nick Saban in building a dynasty given the location; Cardinal bring back all everything RB/WR/KR Christian McCaffrey
9 Florida State – Noles return every single offensive starter but will need to get improved play at QB to take on a much tougher schedule that kicks off with Ole Miss.
10 Mississippi – HC Hugh Freeze’s great recruiting class of ’13 paid dividends with back to back NY6 bowls, but several of those elite players are now leaving, including DT R Nkemdiche. But with QB Chad Kelly back, offense should still be strong.
11 Ohio State – 2016 will be the biggest challenge HC Urban Meyer has faced since taking over the Buckeyes. Nine juniors declared for early entry into the draft, leaving only 8 starters back overall.
12 LSU – Not the typical slew of early NFL draft entries leaves the TIgers with an unusually experienced team. Can an offense built around a great RB, not QB, win big today’s game?
13 Oklahoma State – Pokes return QB Mason Rudolph along with four o-lineman to keep the passing game humming. With 17 starters back overall, OSU is a contender in the Big 12 but this season faces their biggest games away from T Boone Pickens Stadium.
14 Michigan State – HC Mark Dantonio has built a tremendous program at MSU, but 2016 will feature a number of challenges – the loss of 8 starters on offense, including QB Connor Cook and a schedule that includes both NW and Wisky from the B1G West plus Notre Dame and BYU OOC.
15 Washington – HC Chris Petersen slowly building talent in Seattle and this may be the year of the breakthrough, with QB Jake Browning and RB Miles Gaskin and 4 starting o-lineman returning.
16 Houston – Electric QB Greg Ward Jr returns, but the bigger story is that HC Tom Hermann is back. Cougs will be in unfamiliar position of heavy favorite, but don’t count out what Hermann has done in one season.
17 TCU – Horned Frogs stumbled down the stretch of an injury plagued season and now only return 3 starters on offense for ’16. But HC Gary Patterson has been able to plug and play and gets an intriguing prospect as former TA&M QB Kenny Hill becomes eligible
18 Georgia – Dawgs finished 2015 with such unimpressive wins that a 10-3 marquee SEC team finished unranked. New HC Kirby Smart should energize the program and with Alabama off the schedule,
19 Miami – New HC Mark Richt was criticized at UGA for not winning the big one (or enough big ones) but he’s the best coach the Hurricanes have had in 15 years. UM brings back a great QB in Brad Kayaa which means Richt could make a splash his first season.
20 Iowa – Hawkeyes finally had their breakthrough season in 2015 and have a solid core group of players returning, including QB CJ Breathard. A tougher B1G schedule makes a repeat of last years success unlikely.
21 Oregon – HC Mark Helfrich is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a second year in a row, with a graduate transfer from an FCS program coming in to QB the Ducks. Bigger issue may be on the defensive side of the ball, where Oregon gave up 38 ppg in ’15.
22 Florida – A poor finish took some of the shine off HC Jim McElwain’s first year, but 10 wins and the SEC East championship was well beyond expectations. Gators need to find a QB but defense should be good again, and often times improvement happens in a new coach’s second season.
23 Utah – Utes didn’t lose HC Kyle Wittingham in the coaching carousel last season, and should continue with his philosophy of defense first. Utah looking to JC to find a replacement for departing QB Travis Wilson.
24 Boise State – The offense responsible for over 600 yards in the Poinsettia Bowl returns 9 starters, including QB Brent Rypien and RB Jeremy McNichols, but must rebuild the defense. OOC schedule includes up and coming Washington State and BYU.
25 UCLA – Much heralded freshman QB Josh Rosen “The Rosen One” returns after a solid debut and leads the Bruin offense to greater heights.

Initial thoughts on the Playoff selections

The four teams selected for the College Football Playoff were announced today and unlike last year’s stunning change in the final rankings, this year’s situation produced no such drama. The top 4 of Clemson vs Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl and Alabama vs Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl were exactly the teams everyone expected and as a group, virtually controversy free. That does not mean the rankings weren’t without ramifications though, here are a few initial thoughts:
Good news for the Tide…
Michigan State moving up to #3 provides Alabama with a much more favorable match up for two reasons: 1) Bama brings fans in droves, so they’re not hugely outnumbered regardless of the scenario, BUT a game in Dallas vs nearby Oklahoma would have been the largest crowd for their opponent that Bama would have ever faced in a playoff/BCS title game. 2) Alabama’s few losses in recent years have come against mobile QBs that throw for big numbers. Very good teams that feature a generally pro-style offense, run the ball well and play good defense typically do not defeat the Tide (see LSU the past 4 years). The only team in the playoff that fits the model of a team Alabama usually beats is Michigan State. It’s not surprising that Vegas has initially made the Tide a whopping 11 point favorite.
And more on the Spartans…
Michigan State has given two teams their only loss. Not only is MSU the only team to accomplish the feat this year, it is a rare to happen in any year. But if you look a little closer, it helped MSU, and the Big Ten in general, to have so few games between the better teams. The top 3 teams in the West (Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin) only had 1 game against the top 3 teams in the East (Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan). Given that there could have been up to 9 games between these teams, that leaves 8 games that were unplayed – 8 losses that these teams didn’t have. The West Division teams that MSU played were 2-10 Purdue (MSU won by 3) and 5-7 Nebraska (MSU lost). What if MSU had played Northwestern and Wisconsin in the regular season? Or what if either of these teams had played Ohio State? And Iowa didn’t play Michigan or Ohio State. This is a huge number of losses that didn’t occur, simply because the teams didn’t play. The Big Ten could have easily had no teams in the top 8 and been the conference left out of the playoffs rather than the Pac 12.
Same as it ever was…
the current playoff and New Year’s Six structure is a dramatic improvement from the BCS era, which in spite of the critics, was a dramatic improvement over the previous system (or lack thereof). That said, there are still some remnants from the old bowl system that had a noticeable effect on the quality of the games this year.
The Sugar is tied in to the SEC/Big 12 match-up; this would be great except both conferences did not produce a 2nd Top 10 team. So while #10 North Carolina (Russel Athletic) and #11 TCU (Alamo) are in secondary (at best) bowls, #12 Ole Miss and #16 Oklahoma State are playing in the Sugar.

Georgia Fires Mark Richt – Commentary

The University of Georgia announced today that Mark Richt would be stepping down as head coach after the bowl game. While officially stated as a “mutual decision”, all indications were that Richt wanted to return as head coach next year. As expected, the news was met with a mixed reaction, many acknowledging Richt’s overall high winning percentage with others noting the recent poor record in big games and lack of division titles.

No one wants to see a man lose their job, and by all accounts, Richt was honest, down-to-earth, genuine person and he spends his off time doing charitable and missionary work. But with the very high salary and profile of the Head Coach of a major football program, comes the cold hard facts of the performance on the field. Let’s look at those facts and see why Georgia made the difficult, but correct decision (part 1).

It started great… Richt was phenomenally successful his first eight years as Georgia Head Coach. The bulldogs finished in the AP rankings all 8 years, with 4 top 10 appearances. Georgia had the 6th highest winning percentage in the nation during that time period. True, UGA did not appear in any BCS Title games, but that was more a factor of luck. During those same years, LSU became the first national champion with 2 regular season losses after #2 West Virginia lost to a 4-7 Pitt squad the last week of the season. And Urban Meyer got a title at Florida in 2006 –in order for the Gators to get into the BCS Championship game, #2 USC had to lose to 6-5 UCLA (who would follow up that win by getting blown out in the Walnut Bowl). So no BCS good fortune for Richt, but he had the program rolling.

But the last 6 full seasons (2009-2014) have not been nearly as productive. UGA finished outside the AP Top 25 in half the years, and more notably, is tied for 21St for winning percentage amongst the FBS programs during that time. By comparison, Richt took over when Jim Donnan was fired after the 2000 season. Donnan’s winning percentage ranked 12th in the nation for the previous 4 years, much higher than the ranking of Richt’s program the past 6. Richt was given extra opportunity to turn the program around, and this year was likely the final opportunity. The blow-out loss to Alabama at home was painful, but the bizarre decision on the starting quarterback versus Florida made it appear that Richt was out of answers. And seeing the Gators with a first year coach not just win but dominate the Bulldogs was the last straw for the Georgia administration.

Georgia should never be the 21st best program in the nation. The administration made the difficult first part of the move to improve the program, but now needs to make the 2nd part. Mark Richt was a good hire at that place and time; can they make the right hire this go round?

Should I be worried?

After a weekend filled with upsets, good wins, bad losses, bad wins and good losses, many fan bases are wondering – should I be worried about my team? Mr College Sports is here to answer the question.

 

Auburn – Tigers scored a TD with 40 seconds remaining to tie 1-AA (FCS) Jacksonville State in Jordan-Hare then went on to win in OT 27-20. A shanked punt by Jax State set up AU in great field position to get the tying TD in regulation.
Should I be worried? Yes, yes you should. Jeremey Johnson threw 2 INTs, making 5 on the season, and the Auburn defense had trouble stopping the Gamecock offense (not those Gamecocks, these from the FCS). Meanwhile, the season opening “quality win” over Louisville, was going down the drain as the Cards lost at home to Houston. HC Gus Malzahn expresses his confidence in Johnson, but there isn’t much time for improvement with LSU up next.

Oregon – lost at Michigan State 31-28. Ducks had the ball in Michigan State territory in the last minute of the game but were stopped on 4th down.
Should I be worried? No. QB Vernon Adams was playing in his first game as a Duck against an FBS team and it’s the #6 ranked Spartans on the road. Adams was just a couple plays short of pulling of the huge road win. With Stanford laying an egg in their first game, Ducks are still the big favorite to win the North Division and can win the conference and a spot in the title game with 1 loss.

Tennessee – took a 17 point lead over Oklahoma but lost in double OT on an INT by QB Joshua Dobbs.
Should I be worried? a little; while it’s frustrating to blow the big lead, the Vols did a lot of things right on Saturday night. The defense improved dramatically after allowing 500 yards to Bowling Green the previous week; meanwhile as the Vols were shutting down OU for 3 quarters, Bowling Green destroyed Maryland in College Park. A little concerned that Joshua Dobbs only completed 13 of 31 passes for 125 yards – Vols will need better production than that. But look at the rest of the SEC East – UK had more trouble at home with Louisiana- Lafayette than at South Carolina; UGA has QB issues of their own (see below) and UF and Mizzou struggled with non-power teams at home – the Vols are very much in the race to win the division and make the conference championship game.

Arkansas – two days after HC Bret Bielema criticized Ohio State for playing a weak schedule, including MAC teams, Hogs lose 16-12 to Toledo from the MAC.
Should I be worried? Not as much as you think. The Hogs had over 500 yards total offense but somehow managed to turn that into only 12 points – almost unheard of with only 1 turnover. While the loss will hurt the overall record, the goal of a winning record in the SEC West is still well within reach. The biggest takeaway from this game is sage advice from Motivational Speaker Matt Foley to Bret Bielema “Just shut your BIG YAPPER!”

Notre Dame – Back-up QB DeShone Kizer threw a 40 yard TD pass with 12 seconds left for the Irish to pull-out the 34-27 win over Virginia. Cavs were 5-7 last season and have lost 6 or their last 7 games. Should I be worried? Probably, but it could have been worse. Notre Dame starting QB Malik Zaire is out for the season so Kizer is the starter going forward. Kizer looked good in the short time he played, but the critical fact is that the Irish did not lose to a team likely to finish below .500. If Golden Domers can get the play of Kizer as Ohio State did out of their back-up QBs last year, the playoffs are still a possibility.
Georgia and Florida State – FSU beat South Florida 34-14 after a 7-7 first half; UGA defeated Vandy 31-14 after leading 14-6 at halftime. Each QB struggled early but both 20+ point favorites pulled away in the second half.
Should I be worried? Yes. Both teams feature a graduate transfer QB that won the starting job even after only arriving on campus in mid-summer, suggesting dissatisfaction with QBs already in-house. The two combined for 1 pass completion in the first half of their respective games. Greyson Lambert of Georgia finished 11 of 21 for 116 yards and was briefly replaced by Brice Ramsey. FSU’s Everett Golson ended with 163 yards with a long of only 23. Both teams are still very much in contention in their respective conference divisions, but need a significant improvement in QB/o-line play to beat the better opponents in the future.

What to Watch – Must see games for Saturday, Monday

Saturday
Auburn vs Louisville (Atlanta) 3:30 pm CBS – Can Bobby Petrino pull off the upset of the Tigers who are looking to make a run at the SEC championship and the playoffs? Cards only return 9 starters and Tigers looking for improved defense under new DC Will Muschamp.
BYU at Nebraska 3:30 ABC – Cougars were on a roll last year until QB Taysom Hill was injured; Hill is back and BYU wants to crash the playoffs. Huskers first game with former Oregon State HC Mike Riley, trying to get Big Red back into Big 10 contention.
Texas at Notre Dame 7:30pm NBC – Can the Horns get better QB Play in HC Charlie Strong’s second year? Irish banking on Malik Zaire, the QB in the bowl win over LSU, to reach a spot in the playoffs.
Alabama vs Wisconsin (Dallas) – Bama has played in 5 of these classic games and has dominated each one, but returns only 3 starters on offense and has not named a QB. Grind it out Badger offense will have trouble with the star studded Bama d line.
Monday
Ohio State at Virginia Tech 8:00pm ESPN – Buckeyes are big favorites to repeat as national champions – and open with the team that gave them their only loss in ’14. Beamer’s program has struggled in recent years – will the suspensions of key OSU starters be enough for Hokies to hang around?

What to Watch – Guide to this weekend’s TV viewing

Part 1 – Top Games Thursday and Friday
Thursday
6:00pm ESPN – North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte) – Heels return 18 starters and look for a rare breakout win to kick-off 2015; Cocks trying to prove the Ol Ball Coach still has it in him.
8:30pm FS1 – Michigan at Utah – the Harbaugh era begins at Michigan with a road game against a team that won in the Big House 26-10 last year; is the energy of the new coach enough to pull off an upset right out of the gate?
9:00pm ESPN – TCU at Minnesota – Both TCU and Baylor are in the playoff race, and face embarrassingly easy non-conference schedules… with one exception. This is the Horned Frogs one opportunity to get an out-of-conference win against a Gopher team that is a dark horse contender in the B1G West.

Friday
10:15pm ESPN – Washington at Boise State – Former Boise HC Chris Petersen returns to the smurf turf with a struggling Husky squad.. Will the Broncos welcome back the coach that put the program on the map? Or show no mercy in one of the few games against power 5 teams to make an impression on the playoff committee?

Top 30 Teams for 2015

1 Ohio State The Buckeyes have such an embarrassment of riches that Braxton Miller, a pre-season top Heisman candidate on year ago, is now the 3rd string QB and reportedly will move to WR/HB to add another dimension to the OSU offense. With 16 starters returning from last season’s national championship team, and a schedule with only 1 team that finished ranked in 2014, the Bucks are the biggest favorite to repeat as champions in many years.
2 TCU The Horned Frogs enter 2015 with a chip on their shoulder as the perceived best team in the Big 12 was left out of the inaugural playoffs last season. QB Trevone Boykin threw for a program record 33 TDs in ’14 and returns to operate behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense loses 5 of the team’s 6 top tacklers from last season, including their All American LB Paul Dawson. The net result is probably a repeat of a few shootouts in conference play, but the edge in QB goes to the Frogs in the marquee match-ups.
3 Oregon USC may be getting a lot of buzz for 2015 but the Ducks are the top program in the Pac 12 and are the winningest team in the FBS the last 5 years. The biggest challenge will be to replace Heisman winning QB Marcus Mariota, the 2nd pick in the NFL draft. The expectation is that Vernon Adams, a graduate transfer who put up prolific numbers in the high powered offense at FCS Eastern Washington, will win the starting job. The Ducks only return 12 starters overall, and the defense, which generally played well late in the year, was trampled by Ohio State in the national championship game. But even without Mariota, this is a very athletic, talented team and get’s the slight edge over USC to win the conference and get into the playoffs.
4 Alabama The sky is falling in Tuscaloosa as the Crimson Tide has gone TWO whole years without a national title and hasn’t even appeared in the championship game! If they are to get back to what Roll Tide Nation considers their rightful place, it will be behind a defensive front as good as any in the nation. The elite recruiting classes year after year means the talent is there on offense, but the experience is not. The guess is that former FSU QB Jacob Coker will win the starting QB but he didn’t dominate in the Spring. Every single team in the SEC West has talent and the schedule is one land mine after the other. The history of success even without a lot of returning starters, gives Alabama the slight edge in this deep division.
5 Michigan State The Big Ten is not shy on top flight QBs this season, and Sparty QB Connor Cook may be the top pick in the NFL draft come April 2016. Cook has led MSU to back-to-back major bowl victories and looks to break through with a playoff berth in 2015. Two huge games stand in the way – Oregon at home early, and Ohio State away late. Even just a split of those games could be enough for the Sparty to sneak into the playoffs.
6 Baylor The Bears aren’t going to go quietly even without the services of QB Bryce Petty the 3rd QB taken in the last NFL draft. With an incredible 18 starters returning, including every starter on the offensive and defensive line, this will be a talented team, in the thick of the race for the conference title and a playoff berth. I give the slight edge to TCU based on the more experienced QB, but it’s the Bears that have won 2 straight Big 12 Championships not TCU (or Oklahoma or Texas for that matter). The season likely comes down to the showdown at TCU on Thanksgiving weekend.
7 USC The Trojans are finally back to near full strength as the last of the sanctions have ended, and are poised for their best season since the Pete Carroll era. Leading the way will be QB Cody Kessler who finished 2014 with an amazing 39/5 TD/INT ratio! The men of Troy bring back every starting o-line so a good offense should be even better. Losing Leonard Williams to the NFL from the D line is a big loss, but the younger guys are all highly recruited talented players. The schedule isn’t easy with a non conference trip to Notre Dame and the 2 best teams from the North Division (Oregon and Stanford) are both on the docket. This team will be in the thick of the Pac 12 and playoff race.
8 Georgia The UGA program has underachieved in recent years, ranking as the 9th winningest program in the nation in HC Mark Richt’s first 10 years, falling to 23rd in Richt’s last 5. There is a lot to like about the Dawgs in 2015 and it stars with RB Nick Chubb who had 8 straight 100+ yard rushing games after filling in for the suspended Todd Gurley, and will run behind a very experienced o-line. The defense improved dramatically under 1st year DC Jeremy Pruitt., finishing in the top 20 in the country in total defense. The challenge will be finding a QB as last season’s backup Brice Ramsey battles incoming graduate transfer Greyson Lambert. Lambert lost the starting job at Virginia and arrived at Georgia during the summer. This is a very talented team but the QB situation is a big question. The schedule ramps up as Dawgs face the top two teams from the West Division, Auburn and Alabama in addition to a road game against improving Tennessee.
9 Auburn The Tigers get back a couple of key players, one on offense and one on defense that were lost to injuries in 2014. But the most important addition is new DC Will Muschamp, former HC of the Florida Gators. Even without QB Nick Marshall, a Gus Malzahan offense is going to be good, and QB Jeremiah Johnson is likely a better passer than Marshall. But it’s the D that will make or break the season – the pick here is that Muschamp gets a lot more out of a talented and experienced defense than last year’s results would suggest.
10 Clemson HC Dabo Swinney has taken the Tiger program to heights not seen since the 80s with 4 straight double digit win seasons, 3 consecutive top 15 finishes capped by 3 impressive bowl victories. The top prize – an ACC title – has eluded the Tigers though, thanks mainly to the dominant run Florida State has been on. This season provides the best opportunity for Clemson to unseat the Noles in the division, and it starts with dynamic QB Deshaun Watson. Watson was a big playmaker when healthy last season and will be surrounded by a plethora of talent on offense. Clemson loses 8 starters off the #1 ranked defense in the nation but has the depth to reload rather than rebuild. Tigers get the Noles at home late in the year in what will likely be the division, and maybe conference, defining game.
11 Oklahoma 2014 was a season to forget for the Sooners, one that began with a #4 national ranking and ended with 5 losses, the last, a 40-6 blowout to Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl (where OU trailed 40-0 after entering the game a 5 pt favorite). But there is some hope for a rebound. The Sooners have played well when expectations are lower, and the last two 8-win seasons were followed by 11 and 12 win campaigns, so OU has not been down for long under Bob Stoops. Sooners new OC will get more out of QB Baker Mayfield – with an already strong running game, the offense could be really good. Would have been hard to imagine just a couple years ago, but OU is still looking up at TCU and Baylor in the standings.
12 Florida State The Noles sport an eye-popping 27-1 record over the last two years, but a huge amount of that talent is now in the NFL. The program set a record by having a player at every offensive position go in last spring’s NFL draft. The rebuilding starts at QB where transfer Everette Golson from ND will battle Jr Sean Maguire. Whomever wins the starter’s job will operate behind an oline with 1 starter back and without the team’s top 2 pass catchers. Before you feel too sorry for the Noles though, HC Jimbo Fisher has brought in a ton of 4 and 5 star recruits, just waiting to take their place on the field. This is still a talented team, but look for a dropoff from the last 2 seasons.
13 Notre Dame The Irish looked every bit the playoff contender in the nail biting loss at Florida State, but then injuries and turnovers sent the team into a late season downward spiral. Optimism abounds though for a playoff run in 2015 thanks to 17 returning starters, including the then Fr QB that started the bowl win over LSU. That Fr, Malik Zaire, can run in addition to passing and will operate behind a more experienced o-line. The D has almost everybody back… but back from a unit that gave up 43 points in the loss to Northwestern and 49 to USC. This is a talented team with a manageable schedule, but not sure the defense will be good enough for a playoff berth.
14 Arizona State The Nomadic Todd Graham may have found his home in Tempe, leading the Sun Devils to back to back 10 win seasons for the first time since the old WAC days of the 70s. ASU will be categorized as a team not returning their starting QB, but a bit of semantics as last season’s “back-up” Mike Bercovici played several games when Taylor Kelly was injured. Bercovici finished with a higher completion percentage and led the team to wins over USC and Stanford. With 9 starters back on D, the goal is to keep up the sack machine and limit the big plays. In a strong division of a deep conference, ASU will have a say in the Pac 12 championship race.
15 Mississippi In spite of a dropoff late in the year that ended with a blowout loss in the Peach Bowl, 2014 was a break through season for the Rebels, highlighted by the upset win over Alabama. The eye-popping recruiting class that HC Hugh Freeze brought in finally showed on the field especially with a defense that went from allowing 28 pts/game in 2012 to 16 in 2014. Those big playmakers on D are back for this year, maybe their last before moving to the NFL, so this year needs to count. The Rebels return a lot of starters on the ofense too and would be picked much higher in the rankings if they weren’t losing their experienced QB. If the Rebs get better than expected play from a new QB, then this team will make a legitimate run at their first ever appearance in the SEC Championship Game.
16 UCLA An overall successful yet roller coaster season in 2014, where behind QB Brett Hundley (5th QB taken in NFL draft) led the Bruins to a 10 win year and a bowl win over K-State. The season was highlighted by the blowout win over crosstown rival USC but an odd mix of quality wins (Arizona State, Arizona) was offset by the drubbing at the hands of Stanford and a 2OT escape of hapless Colorado. Everybody is back in 2015 – except the most important player Hundley. The new QB will have a lot of familiar faces around him, but it will be hard to repeat Hundley’s numbers. The lack of the experienced QB is the only piece standing between the Bruins and a division or conference title.
17 Georgia Tech The Tech program had been stuck in neutral for several years, with decent records and bowl trips, but typically ending the season with a loss to rival Georgia and finishing unranked. The jackets broke out of their funk in a big way in 2014 with a top 10 ranking, a huge victory over the hated Dawgs and an impressive beatdown of the SEC”s 2nd best team in the Orange Bowl. HC Paul Johnson has what he most needs – a QB that may not look that impressive standing next to you, but that can run that triple option offense to perfection. Two big challenges face the Techsters to repeat last season’s success: 1) while QB Justin Thomas is back, almost everyone else that touched the ball is not and 2) the defense was barely in the top 80 in total D but made up for it by forcing a ton of turnovers. The same defense without the TOs is not a good one. A tougher schedule also makes 2014’s record hard to repeat, but the offense should still give all opposing D coordinators fits.
18 LSU The only thing worse than ending the season in the Music City Bowl for a program like LSU’s is to end the season with a loss in the Music City Bowl. The 8-5 final record was the worst since the same 8-5 record in 2008. There is some hope for a rebound in 2015 as the Tigers bring back more starters than usual to a program that typically loses a lot of underclassmen to the NFL. LSU will feature one of the top RBs in FBS In So Leonard Fournette, important in their run oriented offense. The Tigers return 6 starters on defense and should once again have one of the top secondaries in the nation. The big challenge once again will be at the QB position – LSU finished #114 in passing offense in 2014 and doesn’t appear to be heading towards any kind of breakout in 2015. While this is a very talented team, the question mark at QB and the loss of long time DC John Chavis to Texas A&M keep the expectations in check.
19 Boise State The Broncos ended last year where they remain in the hearts of most college football fans – with an upset over a Power 5 team in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise returns 17 starters from that squad, including the entire o-line and a number of playmakers on the D. The challenge is that the two biggest stars on last seasons team QB Grant Hedrick and RB Jay Ajayi are gone and an incumbent QB has not been identified. Nearly 80 teams went to bowls last season, but Boise only plays 5 of them, so a very good record is assured, but not enough quality wins to warrant a high ranking.
20 Wisconsin That smell in the air isn’t just bratwurst on the grill, it’s change; as in the stunning move HC Gary Andersen made when he left the Badgers for a seemingly lower profile program at Oregon State. In comes Paul Chryst from Pitt who will attempt to keep the strong running game and improve the passing attack. Badgers should have another stout D but do lose 3 starters on the o-line; plus the biggest loss – RB Melvin Gordon, a 1st round NFL draft pick. Only one team on the schedule that was ranked last year should result in a good record and even with coaching change and rebuilding o-line, the opportunity to get pummeled in the Big Ten Championship game is well within reach.
21 Tennessee Expectations are Smoky Mountain High after the bowl victory over Iowa last year gave the Vols a winning season for the first time since 2009. Tennessee returns 18 starters, the most in the SEC and features an exciting QB in Josh Dobbs that can make big plays with his hands or feet. There is talent around Dobbs at the skill positions but the o-line struggled mightily in 2014 – although now much more experienced than that group at the start of last season. The defense returns 5 of the 6 leading tacklers from a unit that finished in the Top 40 in the nation in total D. The schedule includes games at Alabama and a big non-conference showdown in Knoxville vs Oklahoma, but the Vols are realistically in the SEC East race and have a good chance to finish in the rankings for the first time since ’07.
22 Penn State Often the 1st year of a new coaching regime shows only modest improvement, then it’s the 2nd year that the program makes a big jump. James Franklin, after unbelievable success at perennial doormat Vanderbilt, is in just that position with the Nittany Lions. PSU features a solid defense and a talented QB in Christian Hackenberg who spent most of 2014 running for his life. WIth a more experienced QB is great, the more experience o-line is what will make a difference. Add in a very easy non-conference schedule, and the Lions have a good chance to finish in the rankings for the first time since 2009.
23 Stanford The Cardinal look to rebound from a disappointing season, the first in 5 years without double digit wins and it was the offense mostly to blame. QB Kevin Hogan returns as a 5th year Senior and could put up big numbers behind a very experienced oline. The defense does have some rebuilding to do too, losing 4 players to the NFL draft, but the Cardinal usually has some talent around for the D. Most of the tough conference games are at home, so Stanford has a good shot to get back into the rankings for 2015.
24 Arkansas Few teams were hotter than the Hogs at the end of 2014, following up the upset win over LSU with the 30 pt shellacking of then #8 Ole Miss; the late season rallied was capped by a dominant bowl win over Texas. Expectations are running high this year, with a big, experienced o-line, 2 1000 yd rushers, and a Sr QB among 9 starters back on offense. The defense finished #10 in the nation last year, but does lose their top player at LB and on the D-line. The challenge for Arkansas is that upward movement in the SEC West is difficult, and with great RB’s and oline last season, the Hogs were just 2-6 in conference. Still, I expect the success of late 2014 to carry over into 2015 and a return to the Top 25 is possible.
25 Virginia Tech It’s hard to believe that the Hokies finished tied for last in their division and needed a bowl win just to barely finish over .500. The good news is that VA Tech appears primed for a big comeback season in 2015. The optimism starts with the defensive line which should be the best in the conference and improve upon what was already a top 15 scoring defense. The problems have been on offense, but with increased stability on the o-line, and a more experienced QB in former Texas Tech starter Michael Brewer the pieces are coming together for a much better offense. Throw in a schedule that allows the Hokies to skip Clemson, FSU and Louisville from the other division, a run at the division, and even conference title, are quite possible.
26 Missouri It’s that time of year where we again underrate the Missouri Tigers, the defending SEC East Champions for 2 years in a row. Last season, Mizzou was blown out at home by Georgia after already losing at home to lowly Indiana, and the season looked over… but 6 straight SEC wins had the Tigers back in the conference championship game once again. The Tigers only bring back 12 starters, although that includes QB Matty Mauk. Mauk is one of the grizzled veterans among SEC QBs and reportedly was in great shape at Spring practice, working to improve on his 2013 performance. The defense losses a lot of talent including Shane Ray, but does return their top 2 tacklers from a D that was #19 in scoring defense last season. The pick here is that Missouri still has a solid team on both sides of the ball, but may not beat other conference teams (Arkansas, Tennessee) that are improving.
27 Arizona The Wildcats were the surprise winners of the Pac 12 South last year and will be in the race once again. Arguably the most important player to the team is superstar LB Scooby Wright who can make plays all over the field. QB Anu Solomon led all freshmn Qbs with nearly 3800 yards passing and should be a more consistent good decision maker in his 2nd year. Cat’s pulled a lot of games out of their butts last season, the ball likely wont quite bounce their way as often.
28 OK State Five straight losses late in the season had sent the team into a terrible downward spiral, but an upset of rival OU and win over Washington in the Cactus Bowl has the team primed for improvement in 2015. QB Mason Randolph had his redshirt taken off with only 3 games remaining but he played well and is the hope for a big rebound for the team this season. The rest of the offense is talented and experienced and are ready for 2014. The defense is the bigger question mark, but is much more experienced going into this year than last. With cupcake non-conference schedule and many of the key Big 12 games at home, the ‘Pokes can get back on track after a disappointing 2014.
29 Texas A&M The 2014 season began with a bang for the Aggies, demolishing #9 South Carolina in Columbia; but ended with a whimper, 5 losses in the last 7 regular season games, including a 59-0 shellacking at the hands of Alabama. A program in flux in 2014 still has a lot of talent but also a lot of questions. The QB that led the team to the huge win over the Gamecocks has left the program, leaving behind So. Kyle Allen, who did lead the team to the biggest win of the year over Auburn. But it’s the other side of the ball where the work really needs to be done, after finishing #102 in total defense. So HC Kevin Sumlin brought in LSU’s well respected DC John Chavis to remake the defense – not sure how much improvement will happen in year 1. A&M remains a program with a lot of talented athletes, but in a division where literally every team is good, it will be a dogfight each week.
30 Nebraska HC Bo Penini lead the Huskers for 7 years but although the team was never bad, he couldn’t get the program over the hump into the upper echlon of the Big Ten and was fired. New HC Mike Riley takes over from Oregon State and has some talent to work with. The D lost it’s star in DE Randy Gregory but does return most of the rest of the D line. The excitement though is on the other side of the ball where Riley was known for high powered offenses and has an experience QB to work with. Huskers do have a couple tough games in the non-conference schedule with BYU and Miami, but are in the weaker Western Divsion of the Big Ten. Badgers are the favorite, but Huskers are definitely in the race for the Division.